$13M NW | fatFIRE | Peter Lynch 2.0. Long term investor, chasing deep value baggers. Ex-Senior Exec Tech/SV. Building agentic equity research platform. e/acc
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Joined February 2024
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This portfolio journey started with all-in $ASTS and kickstarted 1430% in my IRA account.
> I bought in Covid era SPAC around $10.
> In 2023, I watched it drop to $3ish, and I scheduled weekly buys of $ASTS to accumulate for 6 months.
> By Oct 2024, I decided that $RKLB was the better company, and better valuation, I switched 100% over $RKLB around $5ish and higher. (sold $ASTS in 30s).
> I switched half to $CRCL at IPO mid 2025, then to $IREN at $20.
> By early 2026, I switched half to $INTC calls (~$30-50).
> Sold all $INTC calls when stock price hit $100, and bought $NBIS
> In May, I sold all of my $RKLB before SpaceX IPO and bought $MU and $NBIS.
When I shared my ASTS vs RKLB after I made the switched, people said I was wrong, stupid whatever.
When I shared why I sold my IREN for NBIS, people called me stupid too.
When I bought MU, people were telling me that memory is a commodity, and cyclical.
And here are my gains...
He hasn't been that effective with the senate. This whole Iran thing has been a disaster. A divided Congress will force both sides to come together, good for the market.
He could be anticipating neodc not filling their contract (without the loan) with Nvidia and he takes from under them.
He may be right. For him to make 4 long posts like that seem intentional.
Anything over 1GW is insane for space.
I'm an investor both $SPCX and $TSLA and fan of Elon. However, as an investor, I've been used to his hyperbole for a while. It was difficult for me to see but I got out of it $TSLA early this year.
Tesla has lost 2 models, Model S and Model X, and we don't have 2nd gen cybertruck or full size SUV, or a van. It's nearly end of 2026 and we haven't seen Optimus yet.
Recently, Elon promised 13GW 2027. I'm going to call bullshit on that. SpaceX's AI/DC capacity is 100% terrestrial. There's no way to scale that much capacity terrestrial, so let's presume, he will do it in space.
A. He couldn't acquire that 13W compute from Nvidia, that is not physically possible.
B. The engineering it takes to get the cooling and power production right will take more than a year. You need like a football field size solar panel deployment. Not even sure how he could source that much solar panel either. Even if you take 1/4 football field, it's a big scale to build process out.
C. He's going to deal with all kind of cooling problems, produce power consistently. Terrestrial DC system took 30 years to get all of this right. Granted you build off what is done terrestrially, it takes at least a year to do right at best with how fast you design, build and test.
Now why is he shitting on Neocloud... I don't think he would acquire them, it's just not his style, and it gets really messy dealing with a dozen acquisitions and their employees. I don't know. Maybe after he just raised $50B for $SPCX, the banker said, "Elon, btw do you mind just fudding on neodc for us". Elon: "Sure, that's what good friends do."
Glad to see $nbis ceo is ahead of the game.
NBIS CEO: “From last week, probably some of the capital sources are temporarily closed, like asset backed or debt market, but we’re working now with customer advances and several other instruments which will probably provide us enough finance to build this gigawatt at least.” $NBIS $IREN $CRWV $NVDA $ORCL $SPCX @elonmusk
youtube.com/watch?v=ElxZFG9l…
This good and bad. Temp relief but means we're heading closer to bubble. I need to reduce risks. It was always part of the plan. The recent prices makes it harder
yes, a lot of it subsidized right now by OpenAI/Anthropic. Sometimes it's difficult to measure productivity gains in companies.