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Joined May 2023
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$CRWV listed in ANTHROPICs IPO filing
Elixir retweeted
🚨Anthropic: all the companies listed in IPO filing, which anthropic is spending capex on:
Elixir retweeted
They just got a lot more profitable thanks to DeepInfer being open sourced last week. They're excellent businesses. X is full of manipulative anonymous hacks who repeat whatever Elon says in the hopes of getting engagement. There's no alpha here.
Elixir retweeted
Do me a favor big dawg.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Elixir retweeted
$CRWV $ORCL $NBIS these companies have real revenues. Not sure why everyone is suddenly Elon's pawns. In fact, the neo labs will need the likes of CoreWeave and Nebius b/c SpaceX is a competitor.
Elon just confirmed what we've been saying.
Debt money is drying up for companies without real revenue.
Here's who's exposed 👇
🔴 $CRWV: $35.6B debt vs $5.5B cash. Bonds yielding 15%.
🔴 $ORCL: $23.7B negative free cash flow.
🔴 $CIFR: $6B debt vs just $832M cash.
🔴 $APLD: $36.2B in contracts, but only $451M of it lands in FY27.
🟡 $IREN: $7.6B debt vs $5.9B cash.
🟢 $NBIS: $8.5B debt vs $8B cash, but still unprofitable.
Quality names with real revenue win this.
Elixir retweeted
Game theory teaches that if you have an edge over other players, you must shut up about it. Don't announce you have the winning hand unless that's the way you win. Ed Thorp would only bet when math was on his side: he invented card counting in blackjack and his hedge fund had 20% returns over 20yrs with only 3 months down. (He invented a formula for option pricing that he never publicized; when others did, they got a Nobel prize).
Buffett thought the same way; when he felt out of touch with the game, he closed his partnership in 1969. These Masters go around teaching how they did it, but they know no one can compete with them. Game selection is as important as skill, and it can't be taught in a one-hour speech. "If 30 mins into a poker game you don't know who the patsy is, you are the patsy"
Elixir retweeted
It doesn't? Then why did they announce ~ a month ago that during Q3-26, they signed 3-6 month contracts at $40MM per MW.. with $25B+ of RPO added in the first ~half of Q3 alone?
Elixir retweeted
“Jane Street depends on raising money” to pay their cloud bill to CoreWeave might be dumbest CoreWeave take I’ve seen all week. And that’s saying an awful lot.
(Also the entirety of the tweet below is false and misleading, lol).
Nebius’s two anchors are cash-rich Microsoft and Meta.
CoreWeave’s growth customers (OpenAI, Anthropic, Jane Street) are private and depend on raising money themselves, so they’re less able to prepay. CoreWeave’s 10-Q says it is adding customers that “may have increased risk of insolvency,” and it carries no credit insurance.
$NBIS $CRWV