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$NBIS is up 83.43% YTD but I still think the upside is just beginning.
Most investors would look at a stock that’s nearly doubled in six months and assume the easy gains are over.
I don’t.
I think Nebius is just getting started. This isn’t a story about chasing momentum. It’s a story about what happens when a company combines world-class engineering, customer obsession, capital discipline, and full-stack control, all aimed at solving the single biggest bottleneck in AI: infrastructure.
No debt. Over $1.4B in cash. Zero reliance on any one customer. And a founder who has built a multibillion-dollar platform before and is clearly doing it again.
Vertical integration done right
Nebius doesn’t rent space in someone else’s data center. It builds its own. The company designs custom racks in collaboration with NVIDIA. It owns and operates GPU-optimized, hyperscale data centers in Finland, Kansas City, and Iceland. A massive 300 MW facility in New Jersey is underway. A new site in Israel has just been greenlit.
All of it is purpose-built for AI workloads. Not general-purpose cloud. The result is structural cost and performance advantages. Better cooling. Faster deployment cycles. Tighter hardware-software integration. Energy efficiency on par with top-tier hyperscalers.
Most AI infrastructure providers are selling raw compute. Nebius is selling outcomes. The company offers everything from bare-metal GPU clusters to a complete AI cloud platform with integrated orchestration, inference-as-a-service, observability tooling, and API access to open-source models. Its AI Studio already serves over 60,000 developers. The cloud platform shipped nearly 50 software upgrades in Q1 alone. Kubernetes, Slurm, MLflow, DStack, SkyPilot. All supported. All optimized for AI workloads.
This is a software company disguised as a cloud platform. And that’s exactly what makes it so powerful. It starts with infrastructure. But the real moat is experience.
Execution is exceeding guidance
In their March call, management guided for $220M or more in ARR. They delivered $249M. In April, they hit $310M. For full-year 2025, guidance stands at $750M to $1B ARR. If current trends hold, that may prove conservative.
Revenue for Q1 came in at $55.3M. That may seem light, but it misses the bigger picture. ARR ramped hard during the quarter, and the timing of contract start dates muted revenue recognition. Profitability, however, showed clear progress. Adjusted EBITDA came in at negative $62.6M, ahead of expectations by over 30 percent. The core business is expected to be breakeven by Q3. Adjusted EBITDA will turn positive in the second half.
They are doing exactly what you want to see in a scaling infra business: ramping top line, managing burn, and delivering leverage, all while maintaining discipline.
Founder-led with full alignment
This is not another GPU reseller racing to undercut pricing. This is founder-led infrastructure execution.
Arkady Volozh built Yandex into a $30B tech ecosystem across search, cloud, e-commerce, and AI. He left the company over geopolitical reasons and brought hundreds of engineers with him. Now he’s building Nebius. And he’s all in. He owns a significant stake and has over 90 percent of his net worth tied to the company’s success.
hat alignment shows up in how they operate. Nebius is engineer-first, customer-centric, and focused on solving real bottlenecks with real infrastructure, not financial engineering.
You’re buying the whole ecosystem
And when you buy NBIS, you’re not just getting the AI cloud. You’re getting exposure to multiple high-upside bets.
Avride is their autonomous vehicle and delivery robotics platform. Already partnered with Uber, Grubhub, and Hyundai. Completing over 1,200 robot deliveries per day. A 100-vehicle fleet is launching by year-end. Management believes Avride is worth billions and is actively exploring third-party investment.
Toloka is their AI data labeling business, already working with Microsoft, Shopify, and Anthropic. It just secured strategic investment led by Bezos Expeditions. Revenue doubled year over year in Q1.
TripleTen is their EdTech and tech reskilling business, growing 144 percent year over year. It’s expanding across Latin America and now booking early B2B revenue.
And then there is ClickHouse. Nebius owns 28 percent of it. ClickHouse is currently raising at a $6B valuation. That makes their stake worth roughly $1.68B. If monetized, this could fund years of infrastructure expansion without touching the equity base.
Demand is just getting started
These aren’t side projects. These are strategic assets. Each could move the needle materially on value.
But the real story remains the core platform. GPU supply is constrained globally. Hyperscalers are hitting capacity limits. And demand for high-performance compute isn’t slowing. It’s compounding. Nebius is meeting that demand not with shortcuts, but with scale. They are actively deploying H200s, preparing for Blackwells, and building toward 100 MW of contracted capacity by the end of 2025.
They’re not just meeting demand. They’re ahead of it.
And the customers are coming in waves. Today it’s AI-native startups and model builders. Tomorrow it’s enterprises and frontier AI labs. Beyond that, it’s national-level AI infrastructure programs. Governments around the world are now funding their own AI initiatives and looking for sovereign compute providers. Very few companies are in position to serve them. Nebius is.
There are not many businesses in public markets with this level of control over their stack, this level of customer traction, this kind of financial position, and this kind of alignment at the top.
They are targeting 30 percent EBIT margins at scale. Adjusted EBITDA turns positive this year. Their GPU depreciation schedule is more conservative than peers like CoreWeave. They have committed to limiting dilution by leveraging their subsidiaries and investments for capital. And they have the firepower to do it. Between Avride and ClickHouse alone, there are billions in optional liquidity on the table.This is not a story of explosive revenue with no path to profitability. This is disciplined, full-stack cloud infrastructure execution with optionality everywhere you look.
And right now, it is still misunderstood.
I’m not here to guess what the stock does next week. But I am very confident that three years from now, most people will look back at this period and realize this was the inflection.
The infrastructure is being built. The contracts are being signed. The customers are scaling. The engineering team is delivering.
I will be opening a large position Monday.
Again, not sure why this even has to be said but he’s not talking about $NBIS here
I’m losing a lot of brain cells from these doom posts..
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
$NBIS: Fantastic write up on why bringing on token caching is HUGE for token factory
See the chart below!
Velocity matters. After a few of us devs explicitly pushed for public endpoint prompt caching on X, $NBIS Token Factory finally shipped it within months and the Open Router volume has gone instantly parabolic (scaling past 80B daily tokens just today). Get ready for $NBIS Token Factory to now take a massive chunk of public endpoint Open Weights Tokens processed from competitors like @FireworksAI_HQ & @togethercompute
Raw serving performance like TTFT and TBT or Tokens per Minute was never the blocker for $NBIS Token Factory. Without public endpoints having input prompts with cached pricing user cost bottlenecks alongside Token Factory simply not being picked as a default routing option on routing platforms like Open Router $NBIS Token Factory for sure had a massive impact to its true potential token volume as I have highlighted plenty of times vefore.
That single engineering friction point was holding back production grade volume from providers like Open router, Vercel AI Gateway and more. With $NBIS closing the feedback loop and delivering this as fast, as they just did the instant usage spike on Open Router to $NBIS Token Factory speaks for itself. Keep and eye on this chart as this will continue to balloon.
Software + Hardware Infrastructure execution doesn't get better than this. $NBIS
There's a new version of this post
$NBIS: Cached tokens are now live on token factory!
I remember @BKad2005 calling this out initially a few months ago.
The team moves fast
Cached tokens are now live on Nebius Token Factory⚡
Reusing context across requests?
Cached input can help reduce costs. See cached-token usage in API responses and billing, with pricing per model.
More info: docs.tokenfactory.nebius.com…
For anyone that missed the $NBIS weekly last night
I konw it was a late one!
youtube.com/live/ILSpO184V_k…
$NBIS Weekly #2
WE LIVE. COME JOIN OUR THERAPY SESSION.
youtube.com/live/ILSpO184V_k…
Are Neo Clouds going bankrupt? | Data Center Monthly ft @futurenvesting
WE LIVE. $NBIS $IREN $CRWV
youtube.com/live/-YCpjN_0BG4…
$NBIS could sell half their capacity at $50M per MW!?
youtu.be/nbDjkC14igo?si=UuZY…
At the end of the day money is just a social construct.
Paper we all agreed to pretend that matters.
I’ve moved passed the concept of money at this point
Data Center Monthly TONIGHT with @Dr_Crossroads and our guest @Futurenvesting at 7pm EST
LOTS to talk about. Come suffer with us.
$NBIS $CRWV $IREN
Link to stream tonight: youtube.com/live/-YCpjN_0BG4…
$NBIS: If they can actually get half of their capacity on Auction/Spot then my ARR estimate for end of 2027 is conservative
Wow
🚨Arkady Volozh CEO OF $NBIS🟢
"We want atleast half of our capacity maybe more to be allocated to today's needs"
-"How much of your capacity are you comfortable then putting through spot and auction versus locking those up with longer terms contracts"?
-"It's hard to say, today it's probably half half"
Would be unbelievable.
$NBIS Secures a $3.5B financing facility from Citi! 🔥
364 days of maturity and a SOFR +2.5% and up to 3.5% max
So about 6.7% to start and 7.45% at the cap
Pretty good terms!
If the full $3.5B is drawn for the whole year, interest is about $235M at the starting rate and about $260M at the max spread.
We’ve secured a $3.5 billion financing facility from Citi to support our global growth.
The facility provides capital at attractive rates, diversifies our capital structure, and gives us greater flexibility over when and how we raise long-term financing.
Full release: nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-s…
Man $META Muse is awesome
I had a scenario where my Fiancé and I are flying to Connecticut and were trying to find the cheapest flight AND the best time save during Thanksgiving week.
There are 5-7 airports within a 2 hour drive + Uber cost. I would need to spend the time to look up each airport and map the location from the airport to get a total cost from each airport including uber.
It also needed to be within certain times because we have to drop off the dog and pick her up on the days we leave and come back to Chicago.
It went through and gave me the three best options(thinking about time + cost) and then gave the link and all I had to do was click purchase.
Legit saved me 30-60 minutes of just playing the cheap flight + map uber game.
Technology is awesome.





















