Mostly finance nerd, plus Tech/Med Device space
Philadelphia, PA
Joined August 2009
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Fishtown Capital retweeted
Narrative: $MSFT is a loser and laggard in AI
Reality: $MSFT disclosed $37B AI ARR in April'26 growing triple digits, larger than Anthropic, OpenAI, or AWS AI run-rates at the same time.
In numerous direct customer checks, dozens of sellside checks, and hundreds of datapoints flowing through CIO surveys this quarter, the voice of the customer is resoundingly clear and defies the prevailing narrative. Microsoft is the leader in AI for large enterperises, not just in Azure but across Office, Cyber, Data/Infra software as well.
Product and commercial execution has only improved in the last couple months. Combined w/ recent pricing action, accelerating alt data (Yipit / M Science), FY27 looks off to a great start!
Fishtown Capital retweeted
Elon Musk is not stealing from you.
Gavin Newsom is stealing from you.
Karen Bass is stealing from you.
Tim Walz is stealing from you.
Elizabeth Warren is stealing from you.
AOC is stealing from you.
Becoming wealthy does not make you evil.
The people who take from you, promising to fix problems and then enriching themselves while trying to get you to hate those they're taking the money from... are evil. – at Ken Caryl, CO
Fishtown Capital retweeted
UBS Pro-Forma numbers on $GPN x Worldpay updated earlier this week
UBS has it at 5.2x 2026 P/E or 16% FCF Yield
Fishtown Capital retweeted
$AER capital deployment off to a good start in 2026:
"Aercap today announced it has signed purchase and leaseback agreements with Virgin Atlantic for 6 new Airbus A330-900 aircraft."
~$1.0 billion+ asset value over next 2 years, ~$0.3 billion of equity.
Incredible 2025 delivered by the Aercap $AER team!
Strong year-end deliveries with 15 new 320neos and 7 737MAX received and even stronger sales with 14 A320s and 7 737NGs sold.
Expect >$300 million insurance proceeds ($1.5 billion for the year) and >$300 million gain on sale (GOS) to result in an excellent 4Q P&L.
3.5 million shares bought back at ~$127 demonstrates disciplined capital allocation.
Estimate $AER ends the year with a BVPS >$112 for +~23% gain in BVPS in 2025 (including dividends).
Now trading at ~1.28x BVPS.
Double-digit compounding in tact.
Fishtown Capital retweeted
Another insurance recovery for $AER Aercap.
EUR 112 million (~$0.65 per share, net) from NSK.
$2.6 billion total recoveries (with potentially more to come).
Fishtown Capital retweeted
Centene $CNC is a long @ $28 w/ a ~$13.7B mkt cap. Largest player in both Medicaid & ACA marketplace —sitting at a historic valuation low. Several short-term headwinds but earnings should reset over next 2yrs. Well under 5x normalized EPS 1/N
Fishtown Capital retweeted
Bought $UNFI y'day @ $21.66. I was going to organize my thoughts and write about it over the weekend but company filed a relevant 8K today so I'm gonna have to jump the gun and post about it stream-of-consciousness style (1/n)
Fishtown Capital retweeted
$TSLA | Wells Fargo DOWNGRADED Tesla to 'Underweight' and LOWERED the PT to $125 from $200.
Analyst Comment: “We see downside risk to volume as price cuts are having a diminishing impact. We see HEADWINDS from disappointing deliveries & more price cuts, which likely drive negative EPS revisions,”
“TSLA’s growth in core markets has moderated with EU & China 🇨🇳 flattish in the LTM & the US 🇺🇸 down since Q2. More concerning, the effect of PRICE CUTS are moderating with 2H volume up only 3% [half over half] despite pricing that’s down 5% h/h,”
“We expect volumes to be flat in 2024 & down in 2025. In the wake of [price] cuts are lower lease residuals, disgruntled customers & the possible loss of the LUXURY brand premium,” Analyst Colin Langan wrote.
Fishtown Capital retweeted
Prime aged (25-54) employment population ratio up to 80.9% in June, above last cycle's peak of 80.6% and on a nice upward trend. We can put the lazy worker narrative decisively in the garbage
Fishtown Capital retweeted
seems crazy to see $SPX +0.3% in May while there were SEVEN sectors down more than -4%!!
financials -4.3%
health care - 4.3%
real estate -4.5%
utilities -5.9%
staples - 6.2%
materials -6.9%
energy -10%
Fishtown Capital retweeted
Congrats to the federal government for raising an astonishing 4.9 trillion in tax revenues...wow...for some perspective on that number, 2019 was 3.46 trillion...2005 at the height of the boom was 2.15 trillion...
Fishtown Capital retweeted
BREAKING: Sunday/Monday US gasoline demand soars vs four week moving average, both days +7% vs four week respective comps
Fishtown Capital retweeted
While I realize the market is basically saying that these cracks won't last.. boy, seeing $PBF drop 9% while cracks are steady at $37 is something.
I can't wait to tweet this again in 48 hours.
Fishtown Capital retweeted
🇺🇸Private employers added modest 242 k jobs in Feb via @ADP Employment Report
➡️Job cuts in small businesses, but job gains at medium & large employers
➡️Softness in construction, prof/biz services & trade/transportation offset by leisure/hospitality, finance & edu/health
Fishtown Capital retweeted
Imagine thinking it’s more dangerous to let free people speak than it is to let platforms with unprecedented power exercise authoritarian control over who can speak and what they can say.
Your ideas are dangerous, Sam. But at least you’re free to express them and be challenged.
This Post is from an account that no longer exists. Learn more
Fishtown Capital retweeted
We had a -5.4M draw. This includes 4.1M barrels that were taken out of the SPR and added into commercial crude inventories. In addition, we had a +6.979M "adjustment" by the EIA to commercial crude inventories. At some point, the futures market will have to take notice.
Fishtown Capital retweeted
Congratulations to the Senate democrats
for suddenly pulling ahead
& winning surprise victories
By the perfect margins
4 days after polls close
In the dead of night
Only in states with mail in voting
For the 2nd time in a row.
We’d never seen anything like it
In 244yrs.
Fishtown Capital retweeted
$BTU: N. Goonyella redevelopment is incremental spend on solid infrastructure that is already in place to mine High Quality Seaborne Met Coal. Total Capex is $370m over 6 yrs, less than one quarter of FCF. ROIC is expected well north of 20%. Shareholder returns not at risk at all