Father, Chief U.S. Economist, @sghmacro, former @uoregon economist, Tim Duy's Fed Watch, former columnist for @bopinion

Eugene, OR
Joined September 2011
High hopes for this cutting board. Should be 12.5” x 21”.
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Tim Duy retweeted
It's funny how nobody posts this slop thing anymore because it no longer fits their narrative. If someone you follow posted it repeatedly when it was < 2% but doesn't post it now, you have identified someone with a bias.
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OMFG
This post radicalized me into hosting a dinner party.
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sorry, what?
I wrote about the new generation in Washington, DC semafor.com/article/10/21/20…
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SCOOP: Major U.S. banks are detecting unauthorized third-party AI agents inside customer accounts, including some attempting to take actions that appear to be independent of user instructions, sources told Axios. The findings have alarmed banking executives, who are racing to restrict access to their systems as AI moves at a velocity faster than financial institutions can respond, multiple industry and bank executives told Axios. Several banks are now preparing for worst-case and even “day after” scenarios, including how to rapidly secure or restore customer accounts if things go wrong, the people said. Several bank executives told Axios they're struggling to distinguish between human users and AI agents. One executive said banks also struggle to determine whether agents are authorized by customers or potentially operating without their permission, more akin to rogue agent behavior. Read my latest for Axios here: axios.com/2026/10/22/ai-agen…
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At the risk of angering a few folks, I vehemently disagree about the old rules not applying in this economy. When my career began I had no idea where it would or could go. I was curious & rigorously continued my education to improve my skills. Be agile & solve problems. 1/n
Most career advice comes from an economy that no longer exists. So what still works? What should people DO? These are the questions behind my new show, Best of Luck! Every week, I sit down with people who have built careers that have gone sideways, forwards, backwards, and forwards again. Each guest tells their story, swaps career advice, interviews for a job (!), and together, we try to understand the economy we're actually living AND working in.
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Tim Duy retweeted
It’s hard to put into words, this unspeakable tragedy, a few blocks away, where our kids went, my wife has taught, our literal community. My heart is broken, for the loss of life, those fighting to live, the survivors, the heros who prevented something worse, all the families
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Tim Duy retweeted
The worst people, the absolute worst people, are those who only think about “hurt” after hurt happens to them.
2x Trump voter: "I've hurt more under him than I have any other president."
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Please tell John Williams.
Replying to @bencasselman
It isn't just energy, though. "Supercore" prices -- core services excluding housing -- rose 0.4 percent in September, following another hot print in August. Over the past three months, supercore prices have risen at an annual rate of 4.6 percent.
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I can’t believe he needs the internet to make French toast. Just sad.
This might be the first time I’ve ever watched an Apple ad that made me actively not want to buy the product
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🧵The literature concerning why a constant money stock would pose problems is vast, with contributions from economists from numerous schools, including Hayek among other Austrians and sympathetic fellow travelers like the great Leland Yeager.
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Tim Duy retweeted
Kevin Warsh’s job just got a lot harder. My article, which secretly has a Philadelphia dateline politico.com/news/2026/10/09…
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Which is another way to say that the Fed isn't anticipated to do enough to meaningfully slow economic activity.
IMO, the most interesting macro development post-Fed hike has been the (bear) steepening yield curve (from 26 to 53 bps - since 9/17). In a true hike cycle, YC steepening is anomalous. IMO, this is the market pricing in: 1) A two-hike "mini-cycle" AND 2) A higher neutral rate.
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Narrator: The benefits won’t be distributed anywhere near equally.
In this interview I tried to argue that a post-scarcity society will benefit working people. It was largely a rhetorical failure. People don’t trust that the benefits will be distributed, and tech optimists have to fix this communications issue.
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Kevin Warsh wants investors to watch the economy, not the Fed. But two of his deputies stepped in last week and the probability of an October rate hike fell to around 25% from 70% ahead of any major new data. Why weaning the markets off Fed signals is harder than it sounds
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“First, let’s try restarting your computer.”
Tech support is an amazing use case for AI. You are not special. Your question is not hard. It has already been asked. It is already documented. Almost all of the shitty AI support experiences are bad implementations. Tier 1 tech support won’t be a job in a few years
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So now the message is that AI will cause mass extinction at worst, at best take all the jobs and force everyone onto welfare, and in either case raise prices and taxes. In return your AI agent will check you into your flight. Can’t see how this is going to go sideways at all.
Again if you start from the premise that having the most advanced AI is a matter of national security — clearly a view that’s held by many in DC and SF — then the right policy to tame inflation is not to raise rates, but to raise taxes on everything except datacenters.
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I know this is going to date me, but we said the same thing in 1999.
NEW w/ @bencasselman: The Fed has a conundrum on its hands as it tries to tame elevated inflation. One of the primary drivers of growth — A.I. — appears nearly immune to the higher borrowing costs the central bank has begun to impose on the economy. That means the Fed might need to tighten the screws on the economy more than otherwise would be the case to sufficiently slow down activity to return inflation to the 2% target. The brunt of that adjustment will fall predominantly on industries more sensitive to higher rates, such as housing and the automotive sector, and in turn the people employed by the companies in those fields.
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They finally finished the new Alaska Lounge as well, which makes PDX again acceptable for long layovers.
The Portland Airport (PDX) expansion featuring mass timber is absolutely stunning. The wood takes a place could otherwise feel overly sterile/clinical and adds a sense of warmth and depth that is more inviting.
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