Meta4 retweeted
In Texas, Tesla’s registered autonomous vehicle fleet is now 80% of the size of Waymo’s
Meta4 retweeted
Elon's acquisition premium track record - 30% is the Floor & 40% is the expected Premium. This is why.....
SolarCity (2016): Distressed and burning cash, yet Musk still paid 30%. He testified 30% over the 4-week average is his standard practice.
Twitter (2022): Barely profitable, activists circling, yet he paid a 37.9% premium at $54.20/share.
Tesla today is the opposite: highly profitable, the most valuable carmaker on earth, with energy, AI and robotaxi no acquirer can replicate. Elon has told Tesla holders for years to hold, saying their shares will be very valuable. Paying them less than 30% would look like a bait and switch.
Elon already controls SpaceX with majority voting power. The merger lives or dies on Tesla shareholder approval, so Tesla is the side he has to win over. Looking at his Merger history, the Tesla premium should at least be 40%.
4-week average close $371. A 40% premium on that is $519/share. Elon already knows that this is the ballpark number of exchange ratio when the merger deal is announced.
If Elon already knows that $TSLA is going to be $520 in a month or so, why would he pump the stock now?
He wouldn't. That's how you get the earnings call we got yesterday. 🤔
At about 49 minutes, I received one of the best compliments I have ever received.
I’m clearly not great at receiving compliments, but I want to say a big thank you to @ValueAnalyst1 for always creating a space for me to reflect and chat while learning and growing my communication skills.
I know there are controversies and people have mixed feelings.. but cancel cancel culture and just remember that no one is right all the time..
I’m pairing down significantly on my Tesla position..
Life goals and macro concerns are the main reason. I’d rather pay off a mortgage with a guaranteed return than chase a potentially flat stock further.
I’m still a fan of many things the company is doing, but financially, I want to diversify out
This is why I am not as bullish on Optimus taking a significant portion of the robotics TAM..
Though Optimus could use models from other companies and make a leap.. I’m not convinced Elon would allow this and would want to own the whole stack.. even if it delays market entry significantly
(1/6) From @GoogleDeepmind’s AlphaGo to AlphaZero, we saw machines find moves that reached beyond what we’d imagined for them. No one taught them those strategies. They emerged from reinforcement learning: playing, failing, and trying again under a single binary task reward for success or failure. Inspired by them, we couldn’t help but wonder: what might a robot discover if we gave it that same freedom to learn?
That question led us to AlphaNIST. Starting tabula rasa, with that same binary reward plus only a simple control cost, a single policy solves all 20 @NIST assembly tasks at a 98.2% success rate in simulation. More surprising still, AlphaNIST can complete 10 different tasks in a row, receiving that reward only once, after all 10 are done.
Just as AlphaGo’s strategies surprised its creators, AlphaNIST discovered dexterous strategies we couldn’t have come up with ourselves.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2610.13354
Website: alpha-nist.github.io
Meta4 retweeted
We are offering 10,000 scientists the highest usage tier in Google Antigravity free of charge for 6 months. Please apply! forms.gle/WvmBbPvRbpKG1BPn9
Meta4 retweeted
7:55 pm CST (19:55 in 24-hour) is a Back to the Future Easter egg for 1955—the year Marty travels to. Doc’s opening clocks run near that time (actually ~7:53, 25 min slow). The teaser’s “WHERE WE BELONG” echoes “where we’re going, we don’t need roads,” perfect for a thruster-hovering Roadster. Elon’s “Timing is everything” seals it.
Meta4 retweeted
Someone just bought 3,999 Tesla $430 calls expiring April 2027, paying $27.40 each.
That’s $10.96 million in premium, bought at the ask.
The calls are about 15% out of the money, and open interest was just 40 before today.
Tesla needs to rise to about $457 by expiration, roughly 22% higher, for the buyer to break even.
Tesla reports earnings next week.
Meta4 retweeted
Argon is so good at robotics that our whole team is having an existential crisis right now, enjoy!
developers.googleblog.com/ge…
Meta4 retweeted
superintelligence is fine, a lot of people were using that term before, its part of ssi inc and so on
whats obnoxious is the absolute abrupt adoption of people who called it ai hours before just because trump or elon said so which is cringe af almost woke level virtue signaling
Feels like “doublethink” from 1984
