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BEWARE $SPCX $TSLA investors, suppliers, customers, employees: Elon Musk lies. He does NOT care about you or the environment or humanity. He only and only cares about making more MONEY, and he's willing to say and do ANYTHING for it, as UNETHICAL as it may be. Protect yourselves!
ValueAnalyst retweeted
Amazing how $spcx completely reversed Elons stupid pump last week. Even the market knows he’s full of shit now. You have to be a real superfan to believe anything the guy says. With that pump spacex would be $200 if anyone believed what he said
ValueAnalyst retweeted
***SpaceX Pricing Bonds at Up to 8.75%***
"Investment grade"
$SPCX
ValueAnalyst retweeted
I think people are slowly discovering that buying $2B worth of GPUs and actually turning $2B worth of GPUs into revenue are two very different businesses.
You can have warehouses full of Blackwells, half finished data centers, transformers arriving sometime before the heat death of the universe, cooling systems that aren't ready, networking that doesn't work, and lenders suddenly discovering what credit risk is.
Congratulations, you've built the world's most expensive collection of paperweights. Meanwhile the guy across the street with functioning infrastructure is renting out older GPUs at rising prices. Apparently this is what a compute glut looks like now.
Everyone saw the shortage and rushed to build. That rush overloaded the same electrical supply chains, construction capacity, engineering talent and financing markets needed to solve it. Now the bottlenecks themselves are preventing new supply from arriving.
The beautiful irony is that the more projects get delayed or stranded, the more valuable the capacity that actually works becomes. Scarcity doesn't just raise prices. It starts selecting winners and losers.
The real moat is coordinating several moving parts into something that actually produces billable compute before the hardware becomes yesterday's technology.
That's the refining analogy we've been hammering on. Owning crude doesn't make you a refinery. Owning silicon doesn't make you an AI factory. The value is in converting a bunch of constrained inputs into something customers can actually use. And every month you screw that up, your competitor collects the scarcity rent while your debt collects interest. Lovely business.
Now here's where 2027 potentially gets nasty. Some of these guys won't die because AI demand disappeared. They'll die because they were right about demand and catastrophically wrong about the time and capital required to supply it.
Stranded GPUs, unfinished shells, expensive debt, angry customers. And who comes shopping? The operators with functioning infrastructure, liquidity and the ability to commission capacity. Suddenly those failed projects become someone's discounted expansion pipeline.
That's where $IREN and $NBIS could become interesting . they might graduate from fighting for market share to consolidating the industry. Maybe through acquisitions, partnerships, distressed hardware deployments, customer funded infrastructure, whatever. But that's conditional on execution. $IREN isn't immune to the same physics just because we like the ticker.
My bet is that 2027 is about the brutal sorting of industrial competence. The industry may end up simultaneously oversupplied with purchased silicon and undersupplied with working compute. Some shareholders get vaporized, some lenders discover religion, and the survivors inherit infrastructure for pennies on the dollar.
As someone with a portfolio of energized land assets here is what I am seeing:
1. Neoclouds are disorganized and poorly capitalized. Some are definitely better than others however.
2. Hyperscalers are intractable, bureaucratic organizations that take 3 months to do an NDA and want 18mo escrow periods. We built our portfolio by competing against these terms because of our speed and simplicity. The more future assets orgs like ours win, the bigger the problem for the hyperscalers downstream (see 3).
3. There are delays in the existing pipeline that will catch people off guard in 2027. Hyperacalers will (obviously) react by focusing on their own internal compute needs over any third party. If the third party is a model company, they will tell them to go through their model router where they will also take a non-trivial vig. Them telling Ant they have no compute for them (rumored in Ant’s S-1) if true is a huge tell that this is already happening.
All of this is to say that it does look like there will be a lot of partially stranded compute and compute sitting in inventory in 2027 than is currently forecasted. This is bought and paid for but effectively underearning (below total cost of capital) or collecting dust. We see this as true for everyone - model companies, hyperscalers, neoclouds except ONE (you can guess which one).
This dislocation will benefit two kinds of orgs: the non-bureaucratic big scalers who can build industrial scale quickly and the nimble, well capitalized players feeding them.
2027 will be a turbulent year because it will clear out a bunch of wrong/bad bets. It will also be a consolidation year for a few.
ValueAnalyst retweeted
Elon Musk's statement about needing to have pity for Russian conscripts is the ultimate act of cynicism and hypocrisy.
If Elon wants the war to stop and Russian conscripts not to die, the thing to do is help Ukraine win as quickly as possible, rather than forcing Ukraine to sacrifice itself.
A Ukrainian victory is the only way to save the lives of the Russians Musk sympathizes with so deeply.
ValueAnalyst retweeted
Elon is deliberately trying to pop the AI bubble and crash the stock market because he thinks he can pick up one of the labs and get plenty of compute for cheap in the aftermath. He knows the hyperscalers and labs have no moat anyway, so he’s kicking the legs out from under the whole thing.
Mark my words. He hasn’t suddenly realized the AI market is smoke and mirrors. He’s under pressure from the Starlink situation and he’s making a move to kill the chatbot industry because he thinks he’s in a position to rule over the ashes.
He’s not wrong. He’s just right for the wrong reasons.
Europe has alternatives to Elon Musk's Starlink. Even Jeff Bezos would be a more equal partnership, writes @LionelRALaurent (via @opinion) bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
ValueAnalyst retweeted
You’re messing with peoples money my man. Spreading FUD, for your own benefit is not cool. Buy, why would you care after all? You’re not better than any other rich person.
ValueAnalyst retweeted
Griffin thinks GPUs are a commodity: "GPUs, like airlines, have a very low marginal cost to run... the moment you have overcapacity, pricing goes into freefall."
Ken Griffin's bear case is supply passing demand in a business where the next unit costs almost nothing to serve, the same setup that took telecom pricing straight down after the 2000 fiber buildout. He thinks every AI return model in use today assumes that never happens. $NVDA $AVGO
Citadel CEO Ken Griffin Says AI 'Almost Certainly' in a Bubble; Trump Has 'Mixed Scorecard', Bloomberg Podcasts, October 21, 2026
ValueAnalyst retweeted
Elon is incredibly unhinged. My guess is they he won't live to see 60. Maybe not even 57.
Elon Musk has claimed that SpaceX closed a $40 billion debt deal to pay for the chips it needs to fuel its AI ambitions.
However, people familiar with the matter said the parties were still engaged in pricing discussions as of Sunday and the deal had not yet closed. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
ValueAnalyst retweeted
PS: Grok has been a failure. Elon IPO got saved by NeoCloud business as he's good at it and rented GPUs to anthropic. Elon is trying to play monopoly to tank market and stocks of NeoClouds, so that he can buy up more supply for cheap. He's extremely good at financial engineering and building things fast by pushing through red tape
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
ValueAnalyst retweeted
Elon is crashing out hard. Good forbid he admit he made a mistake or did the wrong thing - he’s like Trump in that regard. Arrogant, but with such a fragile ego. Desperate to be worshipped and adored… 👇
ValueAnalyst retweeted
The only way $SPCX gets to 10 GW of capacity this year is if Elon spreads fear like this.
He talks about infinite demand and throws out pie-in-the-sky 13-20 GW of operational compute next year.
They'll have a lot, but the only way they can get those numbers is to try and buy up capacity from Neoclouds that are struggling to become operational on the cheap.
That's the real reason he's spreading this fear.
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
ValueAnalyst retweeted
I'm an investor both $SPCX and $TSLA and fan of Elon. However, as an investor, I've been used to his hyperbole for a while. It was difficult for me to see but I got out of it $TSLA early this year.
Tesla has lost 2 models, Model S and Model X, and we don't have 2nd gen cybertruck or full size SUV, or a van. It's nearly end of 2026 and we haven't seen Optimus yet.
Recently, Elon promised 13GW 2027. I'm going to call bullshit on that. SpaceX's AI/DC capacity is 100% terrestrial. There's no way to scale that much capacity terrestrial, so let's presume, he will do it in space.
A. He couldn't acquire that 13W compute from Nvidia, that is not physically possible.
B. The engineering it takes to get the cooling and power production right will take more than a year. You need like a football field size solar panel deployment. Not even sure how he could source that much solar panel either. Even if you take 1/4 football field, it's a big scale to build process out.
C. He's going to deal with all kind of cooling problems, produce power consistently. Terrestrial DC system took 30 years to get all of this right. Granted you build off what is done terrestrially, it takes at least a year to do right at best with how fast you design, build and test.
Now why is he shitting on Neocloud... I don't think he would acquire them, it's just not his style, and it gets really messy dealing with a dozen acquisitions and their employees. I don't know. Maybe after he just raised $50B for $SPCX, the banker said, "Elon, btw do you mind just fudding on neodc for us". Elon: "Sure, that's what good friends do."




























