Professor of War & Strategy in East Asia | FRHistS | @warstudies | @kcl_CGS | Postwar Japan as a Seapower. Naval affairs. Strategy. Indo-Pacific. One ping only.

London, England
Joined March 2013
The Strategic Significance of the Maritime Theatre in the Russia–Ukraine War - good morning X. Delighted and honoured this piece Dan Hallett and I penned is out with ⁦@RUSI_org⁩ flagship publication- a short thread about our argument: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…
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Ok. Is this like an academic deadline? Asking for a friend.
Defence Secretary urges British public to be ready for war within 1,000 days mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/de…
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Medium Unmanned Surface Vessel (MUSV) Seahawk (2) was steaming westbound in the Pacific as of October 20. The MUSV fluctuated between 9 and 14 knots, slower than a Burke destroyer’s average cruising speed. Despite multiple requests, the Navy has not confirmed that Seahawk is part of the Theodore Roosevelt CSG, which is operating in WESTPAC.
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This government is taking preparations for war so seriously that the MoD is being forced to make £3.5Bn of in-year ‘efficiency savings’ during 2026-27. "we needed to make some savings to bring them into line and balance the books. I have taken decisions to stop doing some things this year” says Streeting.
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Submarine Tenders have been requested in the budget with Destroyer Tenders to follow.
Maybe this is the most important USN #ShipSpotting picture of the year. (📷by @Gov_Vessel_fan) USN DDG reloading VLS missile by barge & crane in the waters of Tokyo-wan, off Yokosuka. -- If US PACOM & Pacific Fleet have developed a lessons learned list from the Red Sea & Strait of Hormuz campaigns that does not put "VLS Reload" at the very top, then we should all be worried. - Congress has provided the direction: FY25 NDAA: Sec. 1027 Congress formally mandated that SECNAV submit a strategy to deliver a rearm-at-sea capability to the surface fleet FY26 NDAA: Sec. 323 & Sec. 334 Congress designated USTRANSCOM as the global manager responsible for mitigating vulnerabilities in contested logistics, including overseeing global deployment, distribution, ammunition stock posture, and intra-theater resupply - What is actually happening to improve this capability? -- @cdrsalamander @mercoglianos @BDHerzinger @MarSec_Bradford @graham_euan @CavasShips @CSSProvision @WarshipCam
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The Liberal Democrats have proposed ordering six additional Royal Navy frigates and expanding British shipbuilding capacity as part of a defence package aimed at responding to the threat from Russia. Click image for more. ukdefencejournal.org.uk/lib-…
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Big Developments! @NavalWarCollege/@ChinaMaritime Studies Institute Quarterly Review 1.8 (Fall 2026)—New Multimedia Webpage, PiX Account & 2027 Conference Info! digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cm… From CMSI Director @ChrisHSharman, @USNavy (Ret.): Where is CMSI’s research making an impact & how is CMSI supporting the education of the next generation of military leaders? The Fall 2026 CMSI Quarterly Review offers a snapshot of the Institute’s latest scholarship, research impact & educational engagement. Take a look at what CMSI has been up to by downloading our latest issue of the Review! CMSI’s research reaches well beyond our own publications. The Fall issue provides links to where CMSI scholars are cited in external journals & reports, featured in leading media outlets & contributing to discussions of #China’s #military #maritime developments. It also showcases our latest China Maritime Reports, CMSI Notes, original Chinese-language translations & other scholarship advancing understanding of the People’s Liberation Army Navy & China’s military maritime power. Equally important, CMSI translates its research into education & engagement in support of the U.S. Naval War College & the broader @DeptofWar. Through teaching, professional military education, briefings & engagement with U.S. & international partners, CMSI helps equip military officers, students & defense professionals with the knowledge needed to understand China’s maritime capabilities. This issue also commemorates CMSI’s 20th anniversary. With this issue, we are pleased to announce the launch of CMSI’s new multimedia webpage + our presence on PiX & we look ahead to our May 2027 biennial conference in Newport at the Naval War College.
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These changes will only make human, qualitative analysis and investigation more necessary. If AI and co. will generate terrific insights about patterns, human tenacity and sensitiveness will be even more necessary to shed light on mecanisms. In other words, the parts of political science that have been "economicsized" the most, those that today look at the rest from top to bottom because of their mastery of increasingly complex statstical tools, will suffer the most. The rest will become more invaluable, though I doubt this will translate in any meaningful change in academia. Most will simply accept that the researcher's job is just to be a research assistant, an explorer looking for new data to feed the machine.
We obviously haven’t had the major jobs wipeout yet. But you read stuff like this. And you read what economics students themselves are saying about working with AI (ht @odavis_h) and it’s hard not to feel like the seismic shift is on its way.
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"Defence in the High North" report from @CommonsDefence concentrating significantly on the @RoyalNavy, noting "the recent disappearance of the Royal Navy’s littoral manoeuvre capability" & "The UK has allowed its under-ice submarine capability to lapse". Frigate numbers noted too
Serious capability gaps in the UK's ability to meet growing threats in the High North top the Defence Committee's conclusions in its latest report. These must be addressed, alongside other concerns, if the UK is to deter Russia in the region ⬇️ committees.parliament.uk/com…
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🔥 A little more good news for your Sunday. Missiles struck the Energia plant in Yelets, Russia. The facility supplies Russia’s military-industrial complex, producing batteries for missile systems, aircraft, and other military equipment.
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USS Chosin (CG 65) Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser coming into Yokosuka, Japan - October 25, 2026 SRC: X-@Gov_Vessel_fan
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Barack Obama decided to hit Pete Hegseth with the elbow from the top rope. Absolutely brutal takedown.
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From the U.S. Naval War College, China Maritime Studies Institute, available now is China Maritime Report #59: Be Focused, Be Humble, Be Happy: Career Progression, Organization, and Training of PLAN Submariners Full report: tinyurl.com/4d9csenx
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The Royal Marines Experience museum opens today after £15M revamp in its new home at Boathouse 6 in the Portsmouth Historic Dockyard. @NatMuseumRN £36 for adults £26 for children. royalnavy.mod.uk/news/2026/o…
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First snip from the article, second snip statement by the First Sea Lord Gwyn Jenkins at DSEI 2025. Comparison for general amusement.😉
Latest news article: Royal Navy to trial its first Large Uncrewed Surface Vessel next year navylookout.com/royal-navy-t…
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NEW: Bloomberg Saturday read Next week John Healey must deliver what Rachel Reeves couldn’t: a budget that keeps both the bond market and Labour MPs happy. By the time he sits down on Wednesday, gilt traders may be happier than backbenchers. — Healey has found communicating what he wants to achieve at this budget difficult. He says fiscal stability is his main objective, but in Andy Burnham he serves a PM who’s set expectations high with promises of radical change. The cost-of-living is rising. Trump is threatening more Iran chaos. Voters and Labour MPs want evidence of a bold economic plan. — Instead, the Treasury is talking about a “focused” and “steady as she goes” budget. Energy bill support is due to be limited and temporary. Major calls on defence spending and welfare cuts have been deferred. There won’t be big tax rises, though banks are likely to be hit. Social care and reversing Brexit are way off. It’s led to accusations of a “mañana” approach. — Aides say the top economic priority since winning power has been dispelling the narrative that Burnham might be a left-wing Liz Truss. That’s ultimately why Healey was made chancellor not Ed Miliband. Advisers note gilts have performed relatively well in the weeks preceding the budget compared to peers like France, arguing that vindicates Healey’s cautious approach. — But it means Wednesday is a moment of political risk for Burnham: the first real litmus test of whether he has a radical plan that can deliver before the next election. Some Labour MPs are disappointed with the framing of the budget as safety-first. They argue ‘Treasury orthodoxy’ has prevailed again as a capital gains tax hike is ruled out. The Treasury rejects the idea it’ll be a non-event, suggesting there’ll be cost-of-living rabbits. — It remains remarkable Healey is not insisting on taking the defence spending decision. Defence officials want him to announce the 3% by 2030 target at the budget, saying it’ll be fully funded and he’ll set out how at the spending review. That would at least be a big policy that would win positive headlines. — Allies of Reeves say it’s hugely ironic that she delivered the most left-wing budget in decades in 2024, raising huge taxes, changing the fiscal rules to borrow and spend more, only to be portrayed by the Labour left as an un-Labour fiscal hawk. Now she’s been turfed out for a chancellor who’ll deliver a far less radical budget and Labour MPs will be asking if they got what they wanted, they argue. — The difference is Burnham may have the political authority to weather it. The rebels who did for Starmer and Reeves - Miliband, Louise Haigh, Miatta Fahnbulleh - aren’t going to plot against him too. Burnham has shown he can do things the left doesn’t like, from more North Sea drilling to ditching the triple lock and backing Saudi Arabia, with only muted dissent. — The next few weeks will show if that can last. There have been skirmishes on immigration policy. There remains queasiness about the idea of any cuts to disability benefits. The opposition to cutting PIP remains. The Rendustrialisation Research Group of MPs is worried current plans don’t match the scale of ambitions set out by Burnham when he took office. — And there is real nervousness among MPs about the 10-year plan and concerns at the lack of formal consultation from No10 about what it should contain. Some in Labour are privately arguing Burnham should not be writing a decade-long policy plan for the party and government’s policy direction unilaterally. Bond investors might be happy, but first at the budget, then again in the weeks before Christmas, Labour MPs’ loyalty will be tested. With @ChaplainChloe @Joe_Mayes @LucyGJWhite: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Andy Haldane interview: **The financial situation is precarious - the penny hasn't dropped in No 10** 'The penny has not yet fully dropped, including in Downing Street. You see that in us having the highest borrowing costs in the G7, despite not having the highest debts and deficits 'It’s the old [Ernest] Hemingway thing, isn’t it? How do you go bankrupt? First slowly, then very quickly. 'Keir [Starmer] lost the dressing room. Andy’s biggest risk is that he loses the dealing room. And then that’s an even more painful way to go, as Liz Truss would tell you.' **Britain is at or close to being taxed out** 'The truth is, as a nation, we are at or close to being taxed out,” he says. “And we are at or close to being maxed out in terms of borrowing. 'So for me, the economics of this are very straightforward. We have a public sector, a government sector with a balance sheet whose productivity has failed to rise this century. And we have a private sector which is actually primed, its balance sheet is in good shape. 'If you want good growth in every postcode — dear God, I want that as much as the next man, probably just as much as Andy in fact — the root is by unlocking those animal spirits and that means a smaller state, lower taxes and that means lower government spending and tough choices around that' **The economy could 'crater' without spending cuts** “This is not a hypothetical risk. Look across the Channel, not just to what’s happening in France, but what’s happening in Greece or Italy or Portugal or Spain a decade and a bit ago. Avoid that like the plague 'Because when you are forced involuntarily into making much more draconian cuts to appease financial markets and get them back on side that will, one, crater the economy. And, two, almost certainly crater your popularity 'That for me is the peril that comes from prevarication on this front. The peril that comes from not using up political capital and making hard choices' **A 'mañana' Budget does not speak to the urgency of now** 'The public finances dimension is of course a real concern for me. I feel the time to get on top of that is now because who knows what might turn up tomorrow. And a mañana budget doesn’t speak to the urgency of now 'The mañana choices will not be easier tomorrow. They’re going to be much harder. So backloading them, crossing your fingers and hoping that the weather turns, for me would not be the preferred course, would not be the prudent course, and risks next year being even more of a heavy lift than would otherwise be the case' **Banking taxes are 'penny wise, pound foolish'** 'The point that actually weighs with me most heavily is that this isn’t just about the banks. If you are felt to be a country that is in the business of doing windfall taxes — if you earn profits, the taxman cometh — that is not a hospitable environment for investors. 'It means you mark down the value of UK businesses and mark up the cost of lending money to those businesses. And that is not a good growth strategy over the medium term. Penny wise, pound foolish' **What does ending 40 years of neoliberalism mean?** 'Have you been to Manchester? You know it’s the embodiment of neoliberalism done well. Success is founded on being a magnetic attractor of capital, or people, of business and culture. That’s what the UK should become' **What does public control of utilities mean?** 'From kind of full fat nationalisation, which would cost an arm and a leg, right through to tinkering with the regulatory rules. If you’re in the water industry, the energy industry, parts of the transport industry, investors are saying, ‘Hang on a sec, I’m not putting money in here.' thetimes.com/uk/politics/art…
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