Making efficient NBA bets every day. Using data & trends to stay ahead. NBA Season Record: 23–17 +4.17u Singles 1u | Lottos 0.3u
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💎 Fresh off a 2-2 night. Season 23-17 +4.17u.
NBA Play of the Day ⬇️
Ajay Mitchell 20+ Points
Thunder @ Rockets
Polymarket: 46.5% implied
THE MATCHUP
65% of Mitchell's shots come in the paint, and that's where Houston gives up makes.
Restricted area: 36.2% of his shots, 15 of 25 (60.0%). Houston allows 67.3% there (league 66.4%).
Paint outside the restricted area: 29.0% of his shots, 14 of 20 (70.0%). Houston allows 56.3% there.
His weakest zone, above-the-break threes (2 of 13), is only 18.8% of his diet, so Houston's 29.1% allowed there barely touches him.
Houston is on the second night of a back-to-back after playing at Dallas last night.
THE ROLE
25.3 minutes per game
13.8 shots per game
19.6 shots per 36 minutes
3.6 assists per game
He creates his own shot: 51 of his points are unassisted.
Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso are officially Out again tonight.
THE MINUTES
Projected 23 to 28 minutes. He's on two days of rest and isn't on the injury report. Houston is favored by just 2.5, so a close game is the base case.
Houston hasn't filed its official injury report yet. Alperen Sengun and Reed Sheppard are reported day-to-day.
CONTEXT
Game by game: 29, 30, 18, 12, 4
On the road: 16.5 a game (2 games)
WHAT COULD KILL IT
The current role is a two-game sample. If Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's minutes climb back toward 35, the ball moves away from Mitchell. Amen Thompson's on-ball defense. Houston allows just 23.0 free throws a game (22nd), so the line won't bail him out. And a 23-minute night leaves little room.
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OVER 19.5 · PLAY 💎
💎 Fresh off a 2-2 night. Season 23-17 +4.17u.
NBA Play of the Day ⬇️
Deni Avdija 25+ Points
Trail Blazers @ Jazz
Polymarket: 47% implied
THE MATCHUP
Avdija's two biggest zones outside the rim are exactly where Utah bleeds.
Paint outside the restricted area: 31.7% of his shots, 10 of 19 (52.6%). Utah allows 27.8% of opponent shots there (league 19.3%) at 47.5%.
Above-the-break threes: 30.0% of his shots, 7 of 18 (38.9%). Utah allows 32.9% of opponent shots there at 39.4%, above the league rate.
Utah is without both bigs who'd protect that area: Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic are officially Out. Lauri Markkanen is officially Questionable.
115.2 defensive rating
120.2 points allowed per game
27.2 free throws allowed per game (12th most)
THE ROLE
31.6 minutes per game
15.8 shots per game
5.0 threes attempted per game
8.8 free throws per game
6.5 assists per game
He took 15 to 16 shots in every game this season, whether he played 23 minutes or 38. He's mostly self-created: 29 unassisted points and 22 from the line.
Ja Morant (hamstring) is officially Out.
THE MINUTES
Projected 28 to 38 minutes. He's on one day of rest, not a back-to-back, and he isn't on the injury report. Foul trouble shouldn't be an issue: 1, 2, 4 and 1 fouls in his four games.
CONTEXT
Game by game: 24, 23, 26, 18 (the 18 came in 23 minutes of a 41-point win)
On the road: 24.5 a game (2 games)
WHAT COULD KILL IT
Portland is favored by 8.5, so a blowout could sit him in the 4th like it did on 10/21. The line is above his 22.75 average and he's cleared it once in four games. His 57.9% at the rim is below what Utah allows there. And if Markkanen plays, Utah has a bigger body inside.
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💎 Fresh off a 2-2 night. Season 23-17 +4.17u.
NBA Play of the Day ⬇️
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 20+ Points
Hawks @ Pelicans
Polymarket: 51.5% implied
THE MATCHUP
New Orleans can't protect the rim, and they put opponents on the line.
Opponents finish 74.2% at the rim against them (league 66.4%)
28.0 free throws allowed per game (6th most)
112.7 defensive rating
The restricted area is 24.4% of his shots, and he's 15 of 22 there (68.2%). Yves Missi, their backup center, is officially Out.
His biggest zone is above-the-break threes (41.1% of his shots, 37.8%), and New Orleans holds that zone to 32.8%. So the edge is the rim and the line, not the arc.
THE ROLE
30.3 minutes per game
15.2 shots per game
9.2 threes attempted per game
4.2 free throws per game
Jalen Johnson has set him up for 12 baskets this season, his main connection.
THE MINUTES
Projected 27 to 32 minutes. He's started all six games and played 27 to 32 minutes in every one. He's on one day of rest, not a back-to-back, and Atlanta has no rotation players on the injury report. Atlanta is favored by 4.5, so a close game is the base case.
CONTEXT
Game by game (most recent first): 25, 23, 12, 18, 14, 31
On the road: 19.0 a game (3 games)
WHAT COULD KILL IT
He lives above the break, and New Orleans holds that zone to 32.8%. His road average of 19.0 sits right at the line. Johnson or Dyson Daniels could carry the scoring, and if Johnson looks for his own shot, fewer of those 12 setups come Alexander-Walker's way.
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OVER 19.5 · PLAY 💎
💎 Fresh off a 2-2 night. Season 23-17 +4.17u.
NBA Play of the Day ⬇️
UNDER 215.5 Total Points
76ers @ Hornets
This is the UNDER. On the card, "Over 215.5 · No" means the same bet as the Under.
Polymarket: 50.5% implied on the UNDER
THE CHARLOTTE OFFENSE
Charlotte can't make shots and doesn't get to the line.
28.7% from three on 45.3 attempts per game
16.7 free throws per game
38.0 paint points per game
THE PHILADELPHIA DEFENSE
Philadelphia's defense takes away exactly what Charlotte needs.
101.6 defensive rating
31.4% from three allowed
THE SPOT
Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back. Kon Knueppel and Coby White are reported out (Charlotte hasn't filed its official report yet).
CONTEXT
Charlotte's game totals: 213, 209, 225, 213, 186, 174
WHAT COULD KILL IT
Charlotte grabs 15.2 offensive rebounds a game for extra shots, Philadelphia could push the pace, and tired legs on a back-to-back can hurt the defense as much as the offense.
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UNDER 215.5 · PLAY 💎
💎 Fresh off a 2-2 night. Season 23-17 +4.17u.
NBA Play of the Day ⬇️
Donovan Mitchell 25+ Points
Cavaliers @ Bucks
Polymarket: 47% implied
THE MATCHUP
Milwaukee's defense gives up the rim and the free throw line, which is exactly where Mitchell lives.
124.2 points allowed per game
116.0 defensive rating
29.8 free throws allowed per game (3rd most)
0.323 free throw rate allowed (4th highest)
Opponents finish 70.2% at the rim against them (league 66.4%)
The restricted area is Mitchell's top two-point zone: 26.4% of his shots, 15 of 23 (65.2%). It's also Milwaukee's worst zone. His above-the-break threes (33.3% of his shots, 37.9%) run into a neutral 34.0% allowed, so the rim and the line are the edge.
THE ROLE
34.6 minutes per game
17.4 shots per game
6.6 threes attempted per game
6.2 free throws per game
4.8 assists per game
Jaylon Tyson (right ankle) is officially Out, and Meleek Thomas is Questionable. Tyson averages 7.8 shots a night.
THE MINUTES
He's played 31.3 to 38.2 minutes in every game this season, he's on one day of rest, and he isn't on the injury report. Foul trouble shouldn't be an issue: Milwaukee draws only 23.2 free throws a game (21st).
CONTEXT
Game by game: 22, 19, 26, 22, 32
On the road: 27.0 a game (2 games)
WHAT COULD KILL IT
Cleveland is favored by 8.5, so a blowout could sit him for much of the 4th. Harden could carry more of the scoring. And 24.5 is right at his season average, so there's no cushion.
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PLAY 💎
Efficient NBA Analysis 💎 retweeted
HERE IS EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT TONIGHTS 7-GAME NBA SLATE FOR 10/31 💎
BOOKMARK FOR LATER 📚
HERE IS EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT TONIGHTS 7-GAME NBA SLATE FOR 10/31 💎
BOOKMARK FOR LATER 📚
Thunder @ Rockets, 6:30 PM MT
Oklahoma City: 108.2 PPG scored (27th), 104.6 allowed (2nd) (5 games)
Houston: 121.0 PPG scored (3rd), 110.0 allowed (10th) (6 games)
Rockets offense vs Thunder defense
50.0 paint points per game for Houston (11th)
40.0 paint points per game allowed by Oklahoma City (3rd)
49.8% FG for Houston on 86.0 attempts per game (2nd in FG%)
42.6% FG allowed by Oklahoma City (4th)
31.7 threes per game for Houston at 37.9% (28th in volume, 5th in 3P%)
33.5% from three allowed by Oklahoma City (11th)
28.3 FTA per game for Houston (7th)
20.4 FTA per game allowed by Oklahoma City (3rd)
15.2 turnovers per game for Houston (14th)
16.4 turnovers forced per game by Oklahoma City (12th)
18.3 fast-break points per game for Houston (6th)
15.8 fast-break points per game allowed by Oklahoma City (18th)
Houston has no top-10 offense stat here against a bottom-10 Oklahoma City defense stat. Where Oklahoma City walls it off: paint scoring (11th vs 3rd).
Thunder offense vs Rockets defense
49.2 paint points per game for Oklahoma City (14th)
51.0 paint points per game allowed by Houston (21st)
44.0% FG for Oklahoma City on 91.4 attempts per game (25th in FG%)
45.8% FG allowed by Houston (12th)
32.4 threes per game for Oklahoma City at 30.9% (27th in volume, 25th in 3P%)
30.0% from three allowed by Houston (3rd)
20.6 FTA per game for Oklahoma City (27th)
23.0 FTA per game allowed by Houston (8th)
13.6 turnovers per game for Oklahoma City (5th)
15.8 turnovers forced per game by Houston (15th)
8.6 fast-break points per game for Oklahoma City (29th)
18.8 fast-break points per game allowed by Houston (29th)
Oklahoma City has no top-10 offense stat here against a bottom-10 Houston defense stat. Where Houston walls it off: three-point percentage (25th vs 3rd) and getting to the line (27th vs 8th).
Game totals
OKC: 220, 180, 209, 239, 216
HOU: 238, 224, 235, 230, 232, 227
News
Oklahoma City: Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber are Out. Holmgren is reported to be out at least 8-10 weeks.
Houston: the official report is not yet submitted. Alperen Sengun (missed 10/28 and 10/30) and Reed Sheppard are reported day-to-day, and Steven Adams is reported Out. Houston is on the second night of a back-to-back.
Polymarket total: 218.5 (Over 51.5%)
FINISHED TODAY AT 2–2 ✅✅
+0.32 units On The Day 💎💎
Season Record: 23–17 +4.17u
❌ Derrick White Over 5.5 Assists
❌ Julius Randle Over 19.5 Points
✅ Cooper Flagg Over 24.5 Points
✅ Brandin Podziemski Over 3.5 Assists
Follow @efficientstats to get free plays no discord💎‼️
CASH THIS✅✅✅
💎 Brandin Podziemski Over 3.5 Assists
Lakers @ Warriors
The Lakers force turnovers (2nd), but they give up a lot of shots and a lot of points.
113.6 points allowed per game (14th)
46.7% FG allowed (19th)
87.0 shots allowed per game
35.4% from three allowed (19th)
The zones where the Lakers allow above-league volume:
Above-the-break three: 33.4% of attempts, 34.1%
Right corner three: 5.7% of attempts, 47.8%
Paint (non-RA): 23.5% of attempts, 42.1%
Podziemski's passes finish in those spots. Lendeborg has 5 credited assists from him (3 twos, 2 threes). Niang has 2 (both threes), B. Williams has 2 and Horford, Curry and Ike have 1 each. That's 7 twos and 5 threes.
Golden State is thin on creators tonight. Jimmy Butler III is Out and Gui Santos (left knee) is Questionable, so Podziemski, Curry and Green carry the creation load.
32.4 minutes per game
4.7 assists per game
12.0 shots per game
3.3 free throws per game
Game by game:
MEM: 6 AST, 32.9 min
DEN: 5 AST, 32.7 min (+20 win, minutes held)
MIN: 3 AST, 31.6 min, 5 fouls
He did not play 10/24 at PHX.
Over 3.5 in 2 of 3. His minutes have stayed between 31.6 and 32.9 every time he's played.
Underlying: 6 drives a game with 2.5 drive passes, and the Lakers allow 3.5 drive assists per game.
Injuries: no designation for Podziemski. For the Lakers, Ziaire Williams (left foot/heel) is Out and Walker Kessler is Available.
Odds: Polymarket 46%
What could kill it: three games is a thin sample. Curry and Green both run the offense, and in his one miss at Minnesota he had 5 fouls and took only 5 shots. If Santos is upgraded, the rotation changes.
CASH THIS✅✅✅
💎 Cooper Flagg Over 24.5 Points
Rockets @ Mavericks
Houston defends the three-point line better than anyone, but the paint is open.
52.0 paint points allowed per game (24th)
44.7% FG allowed (11th)
28.9% from three allowed (1st)
108.8 points allowed per game (9th)
Dallas ranks 10th in paint scoring against Houston's 24th-ranked paint defense. That's the clearest edge in this game.
The zone that matters is the paint outside the restricted area. Opponents shoot 56.3% there against Houston, and it's Flagg's most-used zone.
Flagg is the offense in Dallas.
30.6 minutes per game
31.4% usage
17.3 shots per game
6.0 free throws per game
6.8 assists per game
37 of his 101 points unassisted
Game by game:
HOU: 32 PTS, 32.9 min
IND: 14 PTS, 17.0 min
MIA: 29 PTS, 39.7 min
OKC: 26 PTS, 32.9 min
25.3 per game, 27.5 median, over 24.5 in 3 of 4. The only miss came in a 17-minute game.
Underlying, by zone:
Paint (non-RA): 13 of 21, 61.9%
At the rim: 8 of 13, 61.5%
Midrange: 8 of 13, 61.5%
Above-the-break three: 4 of 18, 22.2%
He already saw Houston: 32 points, 17 shots and 11 of 13 at the line. He averages 5.7 drives a game, and Houston allows 26.3.
Injuries: no designation for Flagg. For Houston, Alperen Sengun (low back) and Marcus Smart (left forearm) are Questionable, and Reed Sheppard and Steven Adams are Out. For Dallas, Naji Marshall (illness) is reportedly Probable, Santi Aldama and Tarik Biberovic are Doubtful, and Dereck Lively II is Out.
Odds: Polymarket 46.5%
What could kill it: shot selection. If Houston's No. 1 three-point defense pulls him into above-the-break threes, the 22.2% from there drags the night down. He's also had 3-4 fouls in 2 games, and the 17-minute game shows what a short night does.
❌❌❌
💎 Derrick White Over 5.5 Assists
Bulls @ Celtics
Chicago has the worst defense in the league. They've given up 130.2 points a game, which ranks 30th.
130.2 points allowed per game (30th)
47.3% FG allowed (24th)
40.6% from three allowed (29th)
50.8 paint points allowed per game (18th)
The shots Chicago gives up most are at the rim and above the break. 31.2% of opponents' attempts come at the rim, 28.8 a game against a league average of 22.7, and they go in at 60.4%. Above-the-break threes go in at 44.0%.
That's exactly where White's passes go. Tatum and Robinson finish his feeds inside, and George is the main target on threes. Boston also ranks 5th in three-point percentage, which gives Boston a clear edge against Chicago's 29th-ranked three-point defense.
White has started all 4 games and handles the ball as a primary guard.
30.1 minutes per game
20.6% usage
6.3 assists per game
10.8 shots per game
Game by game:
DET: 8 AST, 35.9 min
NYK: 6 AST, 33.5 min
CHI: 4 AST, 18.0 min (blowout)
BKN: 7 AST, 33.1 min
Over 5.5 in 3 of 4. In every game where he played 30+ minutes, he's had at least 6.
Underlying: 24 credited assists in 4 games. 9 went to George, 8 to Tatum and 3 to Robinson. 2.3 drives a game, and Chicago allows 22.8 drives and 8.8 drive passes per game.
Injuries: no designation for White. For Chicago, Dailyn Swain is reportedly Out, and Jalen Smith and Tobe Awaka are reportedly Available. Nic Claxton is Out. For Boston, Devin Carter (illness) is Out.
Odds: Polymarket 43.5%
What could kill it: Boston is a 15.5-point favorite. The last time these teams met, the game got out of hand and White played 18 minutes. If that happens again, the fourth quarter belongs to the bench. Pritchard also takes on-ball reps.
BLOWOUTS HURT❌❌
💎 Julius Randle Over 19.5 Points
Pistons @ Nets
This is a volume play against a good defense, and the numbers are honest about that.
103.4 points allowed per game (2nd)
41.9% FG allowed (2nd)
41.6 paint points allowed per game (4th)
23.8 free throws allowed per game (11th)
Detroit takes away the paint outside the restricted area: opponents shoot 36.9% there, and that's Randle's busiest zone. The opening is midrange. Detroit allows above-league volume there (12.2% of attempts), and Randle is 7 of 9 from that spot.
The rest comes from the line and the workload.
35.4 minutes per game
26.6% usage
15.5 shots per game
8.0 free throws per game
5.8 assists per game
46 of his 90 points unassisted, 25 from free throws
Game by game:
CHA: 33 PTS, 37.8 min
CLE: 23 PTS, 35.4 min
IND: 10 PTS, 24.0 min
BOS: 24 PTS, 44.3 min
22.5 per game, 23.5 median, over 19.5 in 3 of 4. The only miss came in a 24-minute game.
Underlying, by zone:
Paint (non-RA): 10 of 21, 47.6%
At the rim: 8 of 13, 61.5%
Midrange: 7 of 9, 77.8%
Above-the-break three: 4 of 15, 26.7%
5.5 drives a game, and Detroit allows 38.3.
Injuries: no designation for Randle. For Brooklyn, Egor Demin (right bone bruise) is Out and Noah Clowney (illness) is reportedly Questionable. For Detroit, Isaiah Joe (right hip contusion) is Out and Jalen Duren is Out.
Odds: Polymarket 47.5%
What could kill it: Brooklyn is a 7.5-point underdog against the No. 2 defense, so a lopsided game could cut his minutes the way the 24-minute game did. He's had 4 fouls in one game and 6 in another, and Detroit clamps the zone he uses most. This is the thinnest edge of the four.