Efficient NBA Analysis 💎

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💎 Fresh off a 2-2 night. Season 23-17 +4.17u. NBA Play of the Day ⬇️ Ajay Mitchell 20+ Points Thunder @ Rockets Polymarket: 46.5% implied THE MATCHUP 65% of Mitchell's shots come in the paint, and that's where Houston gives up makes. Restricted area: 36.2% of his shots, 15 of 25 (60.0%). Houston allows 67.3% there (league 66.4%). Paint outside the restricted area: 29.0% of his shots, 14 of 20 (70.0%). Houston allows 56.3% there. His weakest zone, above-the-break threes (2 of 13), is only 18.8% of his diet, so Houston's 29.1% allowed there barely touches him. Houston is on the second night of a back-to-back after playing at Dallas last night. THE ROLE 25.3 minutes per game 13.8 shots per game 19.6 shots per 36 minutes 3.6 assists per game He creates his own shot: 51 of his points are unassisted. Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso are officially Out again tonight. THE MINUTES Projected 23 to 28 minutes. He's on two days of rest and isn't on the injury report. Houston is favored by just 2.5, so a close game is the base case. Houston hasn't filed its official injury report yet. Alperen Sengun and Reed Sheppard are reported day-to-day. CONTEXT Game by game: 29, 30, 18, 12, 4 On the road: 16.5 a game (2 games) WHAT COULD KILL IT The current role is a two-game sample. If Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's minutes climb back toward 35, the ball moves away from Mitchell. Amen Thompson's on-ball defense. Houston allows just 23.0 free throws a game (22nd), so the line won't bail him out. And a 23-minute night leaves little room. Follow for every play, with the full research behind each one. OVER 19.5 · PLAY 💎

💎 Fresh off a 2-2 night. Season 23-17 +4.17u. NBA Play of the Day ⬇️ Deni Avdija 25+ Points Trail Blazers @ Jazz Polymarket: 47% implied THE MATCHUP Avdija's two biggest zones outside the rim are exactly where Utah bleeds. Paint outside the restricted area: 31.7% of his shots, 10 of 19 (52.6%). Utah allows 27.8% of opponent shots there (league 19.3%) at 47.5%. Above-the-break threes: 30.0% of his shots, 7 of 18 (38.9%). Utah allows 32.9% of opponent shots there at 39.4%, above the league rate. Utah is without both bigs who'd protect that area: Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic are officially Out. Lauri Markkanen is officially Questionable. 115.2 defensive rating 120.2 points allowed per game 27.2 free throws allowed per game (12th most) THE ROLE 31.6 minutes per game 15.8 shots per game 5.0 threes attempted per game 8.8 free throws per game 6.5 assists per game He took 15 to 16 shots in every game this season, whether he played 23 minutes or 38. He's mostly self-created: 29 unassisted points and 22 from the line. Ja Morant (hamstring) is officially Out. THE MINUTES Projected 28 to 38 minutes. He's on one day of rest, not a back-to-back, and he isn't on the injury report. Foul trouble shouldn't be an issue: 1, 2, 4 and 1 fouls in his four games. CONTEXT Game by game: 24, 23, 26, 18 (the 18 came in 23 minutes of a 41-point win) On the road: 24.5 a game (2 games) WHAT COULD KILL IT Portland is favored by 8.5, so a blowout could sit him in the 4th like it did on 10/21. The line is above his 22.75 average and he's cleared it once in four games. His 57.9% at the rim is below what Utah allows there. And if Markkanen plays, Utah has a bigger body inside. Follow for every play, with the full research behind each one.

💎 Fresh off a 2-2 night. Season 23-17 +4.17u. NBA Play of the Day ⬇️ Nickeil Alexander-Walker 20+ Points Hawks @ Pelicans Polymarket: 51.5% implied THE MATCHUP New Orleans can't protect the rim, and they put opponents on the line. Opponents finish 74.2% at the rim against them (league 66.4%) 28.0 free throws allowed per game (6th most) 112.7 defensive rating The restricted area is 24.4% of his shots, and he's 15 of 22 there (68.2%). Yves Missi, their backup center, is officially Out. His biggest zone is above-the-break threes (41.1% of his shots, 37.8%), and New Orleans holds that zone to 32.8%. So the edge is the rim and the line, not the arc. THE ROLE 30.3 minutes per game 15.2 shots per game 9.2 threes attempted per game 4.2 free throws per game Jalen Johnson has set him up for 12 baskets this season, his main connection. THE MINUTES Projected 27 to 32 minutes. He's started all six games and played 27 to 32 minutes in every one. He's on one day of rest, not a back-to-back, and Atlanta has no rotation players on the injury report. Atlanta is favored by 4.5, so a close game is the base case. CONTEXT Game by game (most recent first): 25, 23, 12, 18, 14, 31 On the road: 19.0 a game (3 games) WHAT COULD KILL IT He lives above the break, and New Orleans holds that zone to 32.8%. His road average of 19.0 sits right at the line. Johnson or Dyson Daniels could carry the scoring, and if Johnson looks for his own shot, fewer of those 12 setups come Alexander-Walker's way. Follow for every play, with the full research behind each one. OVER 19.5 · PLAY 💎

💎 Fresh off a 2-2 night. Season 23-17 +4.17u. NBA Play of the Day ⬇️ UNDER 215.5 Total Points 76ers @ Hornets This is the UNDER. On the card, "Over 215.5 · No" means the same bet as the Under. Polymarket: 50.5% implied on the UNDER THE CHARLOTTE OFFENSE Charlotte can't make shots and doesn't get to the line. 28.7% from three on 45.3 attempts per game 16.7 free throws per game 38.0 paint points per game THE PHILADELPHIA DEFENSE Philadelphia's defense takes away exactly what Charlotte needs. 101.6 defensive rating 31.4% from three allowed THE SPOT Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back. Kon Knueppel and Coby White are reported out (Charlotte hasn't filed its official report yet). CONTEXT Charlotte's game totals: 213, 209, 225, 213, 186, 174 WHAT COULD KILL IT Charlotte grabs 15.2 offensive rebounds a game for extra shots, Philadelphia could push the pace, and tired legs on a back-to-back can hurt the defense as much as the offense. Follow for every play, with the full research behind each one. UNDER 215.5 · PLAY 💎

💎 Fresh off a 2-2 night. Season 23-17 +4.17u. NBA Play of the Day ⬇️ Donovan Mitchell 25+ Points Cavaliers @ Bucks Polymarket: 47% implied THE MATCHUP Milwaukee's defense gives up the rim and the free throw line, which is exactly where Mitchell lives. 124.2 points allowed per game 116.0 defensive rating 29.8 free throws allowed per game (3rd most) 0.323 free throw rate allowed (4th highest) Opponents finish 70.2% at the rim against them (league 66.4%) The restricted area is Mitchell's top two-point zone: 26.4% of his shots, 15 of 23 (65.2%). It's also Milwaukee's worst zone. His above-the-break threes (33.3% of his shots, 37.9%) run into a neutral 34.0% allowed, so the rim and the line are the edge. THE ROLE 34.6 minutes per game 17.4 shots per game 6.6 threes attempted per game 6.2 free throws per game 4.8 assists per game Jaylon Tyson (right ankle) is officially Out, and Meleek Thomas is Questionable. Tyson averages 7.8 shots a night. THE MINUTES He's played 31.3 to 38.2 minutes in every game this season, he's on one day of rest, and he isn't on the injury report. Foul trouble shouldn't be an issue: Milwaukee draws only 23.2 free throws a game (21st). CONTEXT Game by game: 22, 19, 26, 22, 32 On the road: 27.0 a game (2 games) WHAT COULD KILL IT Cleveland is favored by 8.5, so a blowout could sit him for much of the 4th. Harden could carry more of the scoring. And 24.5 is right at his season average, so there's no cushion. Follow for every play, with the full research behind each one. PLAY 💎

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Cameron Boozer — 4+ Assists Boozer has reached 4 or more assists in every game he has played this season. He is averaging 4.8 assists through four games, with 19 total assists that have created 48 points for teammates. His last four games: 4 assists at Utah ✅ 4 assists at Sacramento ✅ 6 assists at Golden State ✅ 5 assists vs. Utah ✅ Boozer is a forward who can help run the offense. He doesn’t have to score every time he gets the ball. He has shown that he can find teammates in good spots. His strongest passing connections: Ty Jerome: 6 assists, 16 points created Cedric Coward: 4 assists, 11 points created Isaiah Stewart: 3 assists, 7 points created Jaylen Wells: 2 assists, 5 points created Cam Spencer: 1 assist, 3 points created GG Jackson: 1 assist, 2 points created Four of his assists to Ty Jerome have been on made three-pointers. Boozer and Jerome have also shared 109 minutes on the court through four games. Boozer is averaging 36.1 minutes per game. That is a lot of playing time for someone who only needs four assists. He also averages 3.5 drives and 2 passes out of drives per game. Memphis has assisted on 61.4% of its made baskets this season, recording 100 assists on 163 made shots. On the road, Boozer is averaging 4.7 assists. He has recorded 6, 4, and 4 assists in his three road games. Why 4+ makes sense: Boozer has been very steady as a passer. He plays heavy minutes, has multiple teammates who can finish shots, and has reached four assists in all four games without needing an unusually big night. The concern is that the season is still young, and four games are a small sample.

Deni Avdija — 6+ Assists Deni is averaging 6.3 assists through three games. He has 19 total assists, and his passes have helped teammates score 50 points. His last three games: 9 assists at Lakers ✅ 6 assists at Sacramento ✅ 4 assists vs. Phoenix ❌ Deni is more than just a scorer. He helps create shots for his teammates, whether he is attacking the basket or moving the ball around the floor. He has averaged 7.7 drives and 4 passes out of those drives per game. That matters because when defenders come over to stop him, he can pass to an open teammate. He has already built strong passing connections: Damian Lillard: 4 assists, 12 points created Toumani Camara: 4 assists, 11 points created Donovan Clingan: 4 assists, 10 points created Ja Morant: 2 assists, 5 points created Sidy Cissoko: 2 assists, 5 points created Robert Williams III: 2 assists, 4 points created All four of his assists to Lillard have come on made three-pointers. Portland has also been moving the ball well as a team. The Blazers have assisted on 67.2% of their made baskets, with 92 assists on 137 made shots. Deni averages 31.5 minutes per game, giving him plenty of time to set up teammates. Why 6+ makes sense: Deni has several teammates who can finish his passes. He can create assists by driving to the basket, passing outside, or finding big men inside. He has reached 6 assists in both road games, although tonight’s matchup against Memphis is at home. The biggest concern is that we only have three games of data.