PL retweeted
The Texas dates that matter come before Hinojosa takes office on Jan 19.
Dec 10: audit results due. Dec 17: Hut 8 expects them final, with an unconditional classification for Beacon Point.
About 8.7 GW at nine listed companies is conditional or in process.
Source: Equibles
PL retweeted
Negative beta stocks are now 30% of the S&P weight, surpassing 2000-01 peaks per Evercore:
"Negative Beta stocks, an equal weighted, monthly rebalanced list of S&P 500 names whose rolling 6-month daily % change is inverse to SPX has (an astounding!) 191 names, up from October’s 130, a new series high, eclipsing 2000-01 peaks. Even more importantly, the “Record” weight of the Negative Beta portfolio at 27.6% of the S&P 500’s market cap has, for the first time, exceeded the 26.3% in the 2000-01 period (Figure 1)"
PL retweeted
Construction and manufacturing jobs have fallen in 8 of the last 8 recessions, with two false signals.
Today, they're up 0.7% over the last 12 months, after dipping below zero.
The most cyclical part of the job market is growing again, not contracting.
PL retweeted
AI productivity gains are showing up, but only in ~15% of jobs.
The three heaviest AI adopters (information, professional services, finance) went from a 2.2% productivity trend to 5.0% since 2022.
The rest of the economy: 0.9% to 1.4%.
PL retweeted
A pattern can be perfectly ordered without ever repeating itself. Penrose tiling demonstrates this using just two kinds of rhombus, arranged according to precise matching rules. The resulting geometry has no repeating unit cell, yet it contains remarkable mathematical order.
The golden ratio appears naturally in its structure, while fivefold symmetry emerges without ordinary periodic repetition. This reveals something deeper about geometry: order does not necessarily require periodicity, a principle also found in the atomic arrangements of quasicrystals.
PL retweeted
Incredibly blessed to have friends much more skilled than me willing to take the time to share their knowledge.
Thank you! <3
PL retweeted
Nomura desk: Levered ETF selling now $41.2B , 2nd highest on record - Only Jun 5th 2026 was higher at -$51B
PL retweeted
Fuck.
For absolutely no reason whatsoever, here is a list of every time in QQQ history where it
▪ Gapped down -2.5% or worse
▪ On a Friday
▪ Following a -1% day
- 3 times in 2001
- Jun 2002
- Oct 2008
- Twice at the beginning of COVID
- Liberation Day
- Possibly today
PL retweeted
With growth scares replacing rate scares for now, expectations for a Fed hike this week have all but disappeared. But based on the SOFR curve the Fed is still expected to hike two more times in the coming months.
PL retweeted
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
PL retweeted
As someone with a portfolio of energized land assets here is what I am seeing:
1. Neoclouds are disorganized and poorly capitalized. Some are definitely better than others however.
2. Hyperscalers are intractable, bureaucratic organizations that take 3 months to do an NDA and want 18mo escrow periods. We built our portfolio by competing against these terms because of our speed and simplicity. The more future assets orgs like ours win, the bigger the problem for the hyperscalers downstream (see 3).
3. There are delays in the existing pipeline that will catch people off guard in 2027. Hyperacalers will (obviously) react by focusing on their own internal compute needs over any third party. If the third party is a model company, they will tell them to go through their model router where they will also take a non-trivial vig. Them telling Ant they have no compute for them (rumored in Ant’s S-1) if true is a huge tell that this is already happening.
All of this is to say that it does look like there will be a lot of partially stranded compute and compute sitting in inventory in 2027 than is currently forecasted. This is bought and paid for but effectively underearning (below total cost of capital) or collecting dust. We see this as true for everyone - model companies, hyperscalers, neoclouds except ONE (you can guess which one).
This dislocation will benefit two kinds of orgs: the non-bureaucratic big scalers who can build industrial scale quickly and the nimble, well capitalized players feeding them.
2027 will be a turbulent year because it will clear out a bunch of wrong/bad bets. It will also be a consolidation year for a few.
PL retweeted
Nick Patterson (Renaissance Technologies)
"[...I joined a hedged fund, Renaissance Technologies, I'll make a comment about that. It's funny that I think the most important thing to do on data analysis is to do the simple things right. So, here's a kind of non-secret about what we did at renaissance: in my opinion, our most important statistical tool was simple regression with one target and one independent variable. It's the simplest statistical model you can imagine. Any reasonably smart high school student could do it. Now we have some of the smartest people around, working in our hedge fund, we have string theorists we recruited from Harvard, and they're doing simple regression. Is this stupid and pointless? Should we be hiring stupider people and paying them less? And the answer is no. And the reason is nobody tells you what the variables you should be regressing [are]. What's the target. Should you do a nonlinear transform before you regress? What's the source? Should you clean your data? Do you notice when your results are obviously rubbish? And so on. And the smarter you are the less likely you are to make a stupid mistake. And that's why I think you often need smart people who appear to be doing something technically very easy, but actually usually not so easy.]"
1. news.ycombinator.com/item?id…
2. robohub.org/talking-machines…
PL retweeted
from MS just now: MSZZTMTM has posted a +/-5% move in a single session 65x in '26 alone, 1 in 3 trading days YTD. We saw just 9 such moves during the height of COVID volatility in '20, the previous record. That's >7x the prior record, with over two months still left in the year.
PL retweeted
Biggest two week net selling ever
According to @Goldmansachs PB, global technology stocks saw the largest two-week net selling on record (10+ years) between October 5 and 16, a staggering 3.3 standard deviations below normal.
Selling was driven by both long liquidations and fresh shorting.
PL retweeted
This is crazy‼️
The $SPX is ~1% off its highs.
Goldman's High Beta Momentum basket is -41%.
We’ve never seen anything like this.
