german swing trader | orderflow analyst | quantitative trading | not financial advice
London
Joined October 2025
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$BTC 馃搳
Still chopping within its LTF Range.
Not really surprising behaviour given FOMC tomorrow.
The flows here are still showing signs of strength for now, especially with Spot CVD actively increasing.
Still holding my scalped Long from yesterday but taken out some risk at VAH.
Larger Swing Long positioning will become sensible upon a stronger structural construct.
馃搳 $BTC Order Flow Update
BTC continues to trade around its local range VAL. Price action is compressing and volume is declining, setting the stage for a potential impulsive move once this compression resolves.
馃攷 Order Flow & Positioning
The underlying flow is showing bullish signals.
We鈥檙e seeing a significant divergence between Spot CVD and Perps CVD: spot buying is increasing while perpetual traders continue to sell aggressively.
This suggests that perp sellers are attempting to force a downside breakout while aggressive spot buyers are accumulating BTC.
On top of that, the order book remains heavily stacked with bids below current price, potentially providing a supportive base.
馃搷 My Plan
Given these conditions, I鈥檝e started scaling into hedge-long exposure against my broader swing short.
I鈥檓 keeping the risk relatively small for now, as we鈥檙e still structurally in LTF no-man鈥檚-land without a clear directional setup.
The primary purpose of this long is to protect my overall short exposure against a potential impulsive move to the upside; particularly a breakout that runs without offering a retest.
I鈥檓 positioning for the possibility, not betting on the outcome.
GM 鈽曪笍
$BTC is still fighting to reclaim the VAL of the current range.
I'm continuing to look for my next potential long, with order flow determining whether and where I enter.
馃幆 Plan
There are two main Scenarios I'm watching today:
1. Local change of structure + range reclaim
A clear local change of structure, followed by a reclaim into the current range, would give me the confidence to start scaling into a long on subsequent retracements.
2. 77.2k nPOC
This would mark a potential completion of my base-case scenario.
The reaction to this nPOC will be decisive in determining whether a long setup becomes attractive.
In both scenarios, confirmation is essential. These are areas of interest, not automatic entries.
馃搳 Market Outlook
We can likely expect increased volatility this week, with several macro events on the calendar.
Today, at the NY Open, the team of analysts at The Quant Library Discord and I will be hosting a free live session, monitoring BTC from both an order flow and structural perspective.
We'll assess how the market develops in real time and what opportunities emerge.
See you at the NY Open! 馃
$BTC Sunday Plan 馃搶
BTC is starting Sunday once again below the mini-range VAL.
So far, the recovery structure remains intact. However, the warning signs we identified yesterday are still present.
馃搳 Order Flow
The most notable signal is the bearish divergence between Spot CVD and Perp CVD.
This suggests that the current recovery has been driven primarily by aggressive buyers in the perpetual market, while spot participation has been largely absent.
That raises questions about the sustainability of this move.
馃捈 Positioning & Plan
We are certainly trading in regions where I would like to look for long opportunities.
However, location alone is not enough.
As long as order flow continues to show these bearish signals, I won't reopen a long position just because price has reached an attractive area.
For now, I'll remain patient and continue holding my swing and scalp shorts opened at higher levels.
I want to see genuine spot demand and a meaningful improvement in order flow before considering new longs.
Wishing everyone a good Sunday! 馃
price finally rewarding the shorts and sending $BTC to 80k!
this came after a failure of the dVWAP reclaim..
$BTC is being aggressively shorted into local support.
So far price is not showing meaningful results following this effort.
However, they do seem to commit just enough in order to not be trapped.
If we sustainably overcome the daily VWAP & dPOC, we can likely expect rapid further upside following the closure of those positions.
GM 鈽曪笍
$BTC Saturday Outlook
Price has now reached the lower boundaries of the current mini range.
馃搳 Order Flow
Sellers are showing intent and, so far, are being rewarded for it.
However, my plan remains clear: I will not turn bearish directly into potential support.
I have been bearish from 84.5k, where I opened my intraweekly short, all the way down to current levels.
With price now reaching the lower range boundaries, I have realised a good portion of the profits from that position. This is given, my larger swing short also remains open, with targets around 77k.
馃捈 Positioning
From an intraweekly perspective, I have to acknowledge that we are now trading in a supportive region.
This is where aggressive selling can easily end up trapped; provided buyers step in and show initiative.
If buyers manage to regain control and push price higher, I'll be willing to open a long to capitalise on another potential range deviation.
However, I need to see actual buying strength before committing to that scenario.
馃幆 Plan
For now, my approach remains unchanged:
Treat it like a range until clearly proven otherwise.
I'll respect the bearish momentum, but I won't chase shorts into support. Instead, I'll wait for confirmation and let the next move come to me.
GM 鈽曪笍
$BTC Saturday Outlook
Price has now reached the lower boundaries of the current mini range.
馃搳 Order Flow
Sellers are showing intent and, so far, are being rewarded for it.
However, my plan remains clear: I will not turn bearish directly into potential support.
I have been bearish from 84.5k, where I opened my intraweekly short, all the way down to current levels.
With price now reaching the lower range boundaries, I have realised a good portion of the profits from that position. This is given, my larger swing short also remains open, with targets around 77k.
馃捈 Positioning
From an intraweekly perspective, I have to acknowledge that we are now trading in a supportive region.
This is where aggressive selling can easily end up trapped; provided buyers step in and show initiative.
If buyers manage to regain control and push price higher, I'll be willing to open a long to capitalise on another potential range deviation.
However, I need to see actual buying strength before committing to that scenario.
馃幆 Plan
For now, my approach remains unchanged:
Treat it like a range until clearly proven otherwise.
I'll respect the bearish momentum, but I won't chase shorts into support. Instead, I'll wait for confirmation and let the next move come to me.
$BTC
No Point in trading the current intraday chop.
This is just a fair value acceptance around the local range POC.
No Edge on any timeframe for me here. Waiting until clearer structure returns 馃
