yixie retweeted
《中美小孩观察录》「松弛感」
「松弛感」这个颇有氛围的形容可能是大脑DMN区域从小没有被抑制的一个长大的后的体现. （Default Mode Network, DMN）是大脑里一片在“发呆、走神、做白日梦、自由联想”时最活跃的区域。DMN帮助我们把记忆碎片，编织进一条更长的个人叙事：我是谁, 我要去哪里, 我为什么要去那里
童年的环境，往往早已在潜意识层面决定了一个人是否拥有“松弛感” 两条关键的反馈路径尤其重要 -
1. 对“犯错”的容忍度: 若外界的反馈让孩子把错误视为威胁和危险信号, 长期处在威胁检测的自证循环中，DMN被压抑，想象力匮乏的同时大脑永远处在错误修正的无线循环里, 一生都在“防御性优化”中生存
2. 对“无用时间”的允许: 不允许时间毫无意义地流逝(
但是“有意义”的定义永远是大人的定义... )DMN也会被抑制 于是你学会了过度警觉/快速执行/永远在证明自己“没有浪费时间”
长大后，这种人对所有外部的信号输入信号非常警觉, 往往成为了高效能、无趣的“任务机器”, 指哪打哪, 局限在对非常有限的各种人事物的解构中和无限的外部信号处理中. 但很难构建出比自己更大的东西
松弛感可能本质上是一种神经系统层面的安全感. 它让我们敢于“浪费”时间，也敢于犯错. 正如confidence coming from being comfortable. 是因为我们知道, 真正的成长往往就藏在那些“看似无用”的时刻里, 真正的精进来自于无数次被人群嘲的试错.
yixie retweeted
Druckenmiller on the 2000s Tech Bubble
I made a lot of mistakes, but I made one real doozy. So, this is kind of a funny story, at least it is 15 years later because the pain has subsided a little. But in 1999 after Yahoo and America Online had already gone up like tenfold, I got the bright idea at Soros to short internet stocks. And I put 200 million in them in about February and by mid-March the 200 million short I had, lost $600 million on, gotten completely beat up and was down like 15 percent on the year. And I was very proud of the fact that I never had a down year, and I thought well, I’m finished.
So, the next thing that happens is I can’t remember whether I went to Silicon Valley or I talked to some 22-year-old with Asperger’s. But whoever it was, they convinced me about this new tech boom that was going to take place. So I went and hired a couple of gunslingers because we only knew about IBM and Hewlett-Packard. I needed Veritas and Verisign. I wanted the six. So, we hired this guy and we end up on the year — we had been down 15 and we ended up like 35 percent on the year. And the Nasdaq’s gone up 400 percent.
So, I’ll never forget it. January of 2000 I go into Soros’s office and I say I’m selling all the tech stocks, selling everything. This is crazy…at 104 times earnings. This is nuts. Just kind of as I explained earlier, we’re going to step aside, wait for the next fat pitch. I didn’t fire the two gunslingers. They didn’t have enough money to really hurt the fund, but they started making 3 percent a day and I’m out. It is driving me nuts. I mean their little account is like up 50 percent on the year. I think Quantum was up seven. It’s just sitting there.
So like around March I could feel it coming. I just — I had to play. I couldn’t help myself. And three times the same week I pick up a — don’t do it. Don’t do it. Anyway, I pick up the phone finally. I think I missed the top by an hour. I bought $6 billion worth of tech stocks, and in six weeks I had left Soros and I had lost $3 billion in that one play. You asked me what I learned. I didn’t learn anything. I already knew that I wasn’t supposed to do that. I was just an emotional basket case and couldn’t help myself. So, maybe I learned not to do it again, but I already knew that.
Druckenmiller famously said to bet big when you have conviction.
And I frankly think the time is now.
Amid all the day to day noise (and Trump’s unpredictable rhetoric), you need to fundamentally understand the following:
- we are in the midst of a once-in-a-generation AI build out
- capex spend is going to remain high especially because the US and China are both not going to lose this race
- AI is going to increase productivity
- we have the administration telling you they are going to stop QT, decrease interest rates and run it hot
No matter the day-to-day moves, I think the writing is on the wall.
If you don’t muster up your courage and go heavy into tech/AI stocks, when else anon?
There will be no better time.
- OGC
yixie retweeted
1/ Since a lot of people are waking up to see their perps positions closed and wondering what the hell “Auto-Deleveraging” means, here’s a quick and dirty primer.
What is ADL? How does it work? And why does it exist?
yixie retweeted
how to spend crypto profits in ways that will actually make your life better:
- throw away every one of your socks and boxers. buy brand new, all the same color/style. your drawers will never look so good.
- get a coach for whatever hobby you care about - sports, chess, art, language, it doesn't matter. just pay someone to shortcut your own learning time
- buy an in-home sauna if you have the space. it's ~$3,000, the same as a high end TV, and if you use it everyday its absolutely worth it
- pay for a personal stylist to redo your wardrobe
- upgrade your zoom setup - nice camera, nice lights, nice microphone. this will boost your perceived credibility more than you think
- pay for your mom/dad/sibling to go on a fancy trip. pay for everything, including flights, hotels, food. it is the single thing that will make you feel like you made it, and the memory will last a lifetime.
- get an inroom IV drip when you travel and watch your jetlag disappear (s/o @calilyliu)
- pay for a 3 hour couple's massage. get the body scrub, it's better than you think.
- buy a package for facials and get one every ~6 weeks
- start getting haircuts every other week. nothing to make you feel fresh like a fresh cut.
- only travel in nice cars. always get the expensive Uber/Grab/Careem. it will cost you ~$2k extra over the course of the year, but the feeling of luxury is worth much more (s/o @akshaybd)
- get a personal chef to come a few days a week and meal prep for you
- get an at-home massage every sunday
- if you're balding, get a red light hair mask. proven to work, and better to start sooner rather than later
- if you live near family/friends, pay a private chef to make a nice dinner for all of you once a month
- get a personal assistant for shopping, travel, and general research tasks. if you're in dubai or india, @dxbcare is quite good and affordable
- spend less time investing by giving your capital to professionals (liquid, venture, hedge funds, etc). make investing someone else's headache
- buy your wife/girlfriend/mother a new watch instead of buying one for yourself
- set aside a new wallet with a substantial amount of stables, yield farm on @jup_lend, and tell yourself that in 2 years you're going to give it to a family member
- buy a really nice mattress and desk chair and watch your back problems disappear
- send a gift (chocolates, cupcakes, etc) to your friends on their birthdays instead of just sending a text
what else?
yixie retweeted
太多人没有能力活在当下，太多人不觉得花草的气味比远在天边的新闻更重要，太多人活了一辈子却从未活得具体，太多人成了别人故事中的某个人，却忘记了自己的故事。
我有时觉得世界残酷，并不在于我们曾遇到的无常，那些只是生活中的概率，是某些因种下的果，我想，真正残酷的是面对时间而逐渐麻木的心。
yixie retweeted
at $1700 $ETH, my biggest regret was not taking any profit on my long-term bags
at $3600 $ETH, my biggest regret is not buying more
perpetual dissatisfaction is a feature, not a bug.
learning to be content with decisions instead of indulging in this vicious cycle of regrets.
gratitude maximalist.
yixie retweeted
我的观点可能更极端一点，就是没有任何东西值得牺牲身心健康，因为财富本身是为了身心健康。一切的获取前提是都不要损害身心健康。因为不是每个人都能幸运的获得那个财富，但是却一定会失去健康
yixie retweeted
Watch these Youtube playlists in order, and you’ll probably beat 99% of “AI people” out there:
- "General Audience" by Karpathy: best intro to LLMs and how he uses them daily.
- "Stanford CS231n Winter 2016" by Karpathy: the course that got me into AI, explained fundamentals in an incredibly intuitive way.
- "Neural Network" by 3Blue1Brown: math foundations via great visualizations, deep dive into Transformers.
- "Zero to Hero" by Karpathy: hands-on coding series to build neural nets and training/inference from scratch.
Yes, I'm very Karpathy-pilled, but who can explain AI better?
yixie retweeted
I genuinely think the best way to trade is simply doing nothing 99% of the time and then sizing big once something crazy happens, take profit after a decent sized move even if you only capture half of the entire thing and continue doing nothing again
1 trade a year kind of thing
yixie retweeted
If you want to be bullish on alts here, that's your right.
But at the very least, don't you think it would be better to wait for confirmation of an uptrend to be bullish instead of trying to bottom fish?
Just wait for a breakout above the daily:
🔵 21 EMA
🔴 55 EMA
🟢 200 EMA
yixie retweeted
diff between solana & hyperliquid early days will be that very little of the early solana defi apps ended up doing well
oxygen/maps/serum all bad
w/ hype i believe there will be a few core teams that do very well & if they have tokens you will want to own those
like @unitxyz
yixie retweeted
There are times when people pour so much energy into calling the bottom — getting stressed, overtrading, and bleeding their balance.
Honestly, every trader I’ve seen (myself included) has gone through this of picking bottom.
But here’s the truth : calling the exact bottom with full conviction is extremely rare. It only happens when multiple variables align perfectly — price action, macro, sentiment, narrative — and that doesn’t come often.
Most of the time, we realize after the fact that it was the bottom.
It becomes clear in hindsight — once we see how the market reacts to news, how macro shifts, how price builds structure.
So the real question becomes: even if you caught the bottom, can you actually hold it?
And for most people, the answer is no — because those key variables take time to align, and surviving the volatility in between isn’t easy.
That’s why risk management, portfolio sizing, and active decision-making are critical. But even those are hard to master — it takes experience.
Which brings me to this: the easiest time to make real money isn’t when you're guessing bottoms — it’s when the bottom is already in, and the market turns clearly bullish. That’s the time to go hard. That’s when everything clicks, and even average trades perform well.
So don’t waste all your energy and mental capital gambling on something that might or might not be the bottom. Stay alive, stay ready — and be aggressive when the trend actually turns.
yixie retweeted
环球旅行不止需要 fuck you money，其实很累的。
人一直在一种被激发的状态，应对陌生的环境本身就是一种疲劳，类似上学的时候连续上了 6 个小时洋文课，下了课是一句鸟语都不想听。
分几十年，在行动不受影响的时间，比如 70 岁以前去完似乎是比较合理的。
没必要像旅行博主那样，人家靠那个吃饭，好在我们不用。
yixie retweeted
Market views update
Markets crawl higher if headlines remain neutral to benign this week, then freeze as we await April 2nd, which is reciprocal tariffs day announcement or, as Trump called it, Liberation Day.
April 2nd is similar to election night. It is the biggest event of the year by an order of magnitude. 10x more important than any FOMC, which is a lot. And anything can happen.
Trump could go soft, in which case markets would rally fast and furiously. Or could go half-way, adding uncertainty on timelines, in which case markets would take out the stops of all longs and shorts. Or go all out, in which case markets could easily crash another 10% to 15%, fast.
In worst case scenario sh*t would hit the fan then tariffs would start coming off as Trump negotiates hard in the following month, in which case peak negativity would hit around week 2 of April, which would coincide with US Tax Day.
The US economy is still strong, but will highly likely slow down due to tariffs regardless of the path Trump chooses. But every economist already expects a very sharp economic slow-down into year end. Which means, it is already largely priced-in.
Will share a more thorough update on views around tariffs, probabilities, and their economic impact this week time allowing.
Either way, you all want to be prepared and ready to act on "Liberation Day". It will be big.
yixie retweeted
Most people would trade a lot better without looking at Twitter.
Engagement bait, PnL cards, doomer takes, euphoria posting, hubris masquerading as certainty, random indicators, momentum monkeys cheerleading every price move, and so on.
All noise.
When it's time to execute, have a couple of news feeds in Discord/Telegram and lock in to execute.
