Chief DCF manipulator, market investigator and fundamental chartist. ACCA, CISI. Dynamic asset allocation. Not financial advice.

quickfs.org
Joined January 2016
Compounding Lab retweeted
$SIVE chart is an utter abortion. Looks like 10-12 is in the cards after today. ATH was 110, so this would he a 90%+ decline from ATH. Great job Serenity! 🥳
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BREAKING: The number of active home sellers in the US rose +1.2% MoM in September, or +17,276, to 1,510,784, the highest since March 2020. At the same time, the number of active homebuyers fell -2.4%, or -23,161, to 928,892, the lowest on record. This lifts the gap between active sellers and homebuyers to a record 581,892. As a result, there were +62.6% more home sellers than buyers last month, the largest difference on record. This percentage has more than doubled since November 2024. By comparison, the 2021 low was -35.7%, when buyers outnumbered sellers by 633,854. Hundreds of thousands of homebuyers have been priced-out.
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Compounding Lab retweeted
“You have to use the volatility as opposed to being abused by the volatility…” “It creates opportunities.” — Stanley Druckenmiller
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Compounding Lab retweeted
You are noticing that there is literally 0 differentiation in AI? Coding, tool use, computer use, personal agent, persistent memory etc. They also compete in price: We made this model, performs like that model, but 50% cheaper. Isn’t this straightforward commoditisation?
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Compounding Lab retweeted
Paolo Maldini and Christian Vieri.
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Compounding Lab retweeted
Replying to @osmanbowser
I don't want them to make acquisitions. Companies should live up to their age. If you are done, you are done, just return cash to shareholders!
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Compounding Lab retweeted
I miss Charlie
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Stocks like McDonald’s $MCD being down so much is literally the consumer absolutely SCREAMING for help… The truth is that the middle class has never had a lower disposable income today while generally speaking the wealthy are wealthier than ever. The uber wealthy usually don’t get a Big Mac for lunch. 😭
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Compounding Lab retweeted
Since mid-April I've published 30 write-ups. Here's some of the most interesting setups I've written about-- Only a handful have caught the market's attention, let alone the hivemind that is FinTwit: → $BRUN: Saw valuation gap vs. public peers like $NBIS and $CRWV, compliance-first positioning in gov't and regulated industries, $GLXY's team's background in GPU infra, as well as huge demand for data centers. → $RVPH: "Broken" Phase-3 biotech wrapped around a credible, late-stage schizophrenia drug (brilaroxazine), for less than the cash on its books. Now its extending its exclusivity and $TEVA could be a likely partner. → $ATII: Sells ALD machines, coating services, and lithium-ion batteries to three of the hottest markets today: (1) AI memory/logic chips, (2) photonics, and (3) defense batteries. Has a $100M US DoE grant, Samsung SDI equipping and backing its battery factory, and the 2028 law bans U.S. military and its contractors from buying Chinese battery cells (related: $FLNC, which I have another write-up on). → $AWMLF: Owns the largest known undeveloped indium resource in the U.S., which is 100% import-dependent and China controls 70% global supply. Pentagon's stockpile arm now soliciting indium and the company hired Washington DC advisory firm in Feb to chase Defense Production Act funding. Current price covers little more than the risked value of the existing copper project. → $QXO: Brad Jacobs, operator who built five separate multibillion-dollar public companies is running his playbook again, this time on an $800B industry. Look at his track record: United Waste beat S&P 500 by 5.6x, United Rentals' early backers made ~200x, XPO was a 50-bagger for early investors. Tho current market environment isn't friendly to his rollups strategy. → $ELMT: The only US-owned/maker of highly engineered tungsten and molybdenum products. Sources 95% of its concentrate and oxide outside of China and converts into finished parts that missiles, radar, chips, and medical machines consume. Equity stake in $EQR.AX. NAND industry is starting to swap tungsten wiring for molybdenum (Samsung and SK Hynix 375-layer NAND both adopt it, w/HBM the next frontier). → $QMCO: AI workloads multiply volume of cold data being generated. NAND flash and HDD prices doubled or tripled as fab capacity got eaten by AI infra. Data-center power capacity hit a wall in major hyperscaler markets. Where does all the storage eventually go to? Cold data to the tape (the tier below), where $QMCO is the best pure-play. → $CALM: Sells eggs (don't know why I wrote this one up, was hungry). Prob can't rely on avian flu to make big profits so they bought Echo Lake Foods to make ready-to-eat egg products and breakfast items. Of course, there's more nuance to all of these names. And just because I share an idea doesn't mean I have a position (only paid subs know that 😉). Link in bio to access all the write-ups.
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The best revenge is success.
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Added 94 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 5): @Antares_Rsrch (overviews) - $PODD, $RMD, $TMDX, $DXCM @RiskInhibitor - $SLGL (bearish) @WisemanCap - $SHOP (earnings), $NVDA @CompoundingLab - $STZ @MnkeDaniel - $DPZ (pass)
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Compounding Lab retweeted
En 1977, nadie en Hollywood apostaba un centavo por Star Wars. La Fox le había dado a George Lucas 11 millones de dólares, un presupuesto modesto para la escala que él tenía en la cabeza, y había cedido los derechos de merchandising porque nadie creía que los juguetes de una película de ciencia ficción fueran a valer algo. Lucas los aceptó. Fue la decisión financiera más rentable de la historia del cine: los derechos de merchandising de Star Wars han generado más de 42.000 millones de dólares desde entonces. Los actores tampoco lo veían claro. Alec Guinness, que interpretaba a Obi-Wan Kenobi, escribió en una carta a un amigo que el guion era "una basura galáctica" pero que el sueldo era bueno. Harrison Ford, que recordemos estaba instalando suelo en el despacho de Lucas cuando lo eligieron para Han Solo, dijo años después que durante el rodaje no entendía lo que estaba haciendo. Carrie Fisher tenía 19 años y acababa de terminar la Universidad. Mark Hamill llevaba años haciendo papeles secundarios en televisión. Los tres llegaron al set de Elstree Studios en Inglaterra en 1976 sin saber que estaban a punto de cambiar la cultura popular del siglo XX. La fotografía de ese año, sin disfraces, muestra exactamente eso: un grupo de actores jóvenes, sin estrellato todavía, antes de que los personajes que iban a interpretar se convirtieran en algo más grande que cualquiera de ellos. Tres años después del estreno, George Lucas era uno de los hombres más ricos de Hollywood. Los derechos de merchandising que nadie quería valían cientos de millones. Y Harrison Ford, el carpintero que instalaba suelos, era la mayor estrella de acción del mundo.
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Compounding Lab retweeted
🚨 BlackRock just stated they believe U.S. Treasuries now offer investors a substantial cushion against further interest-rate increases. With Treasury yields above 4% through the 10-year maturity and above 5% on the long end, investors are finally being well compensated for holding government bonds. According to BlackRock, the 10-year Treasury yield could rise roughly another 70 basis points before investors would generate a negative total return over a one-year period. The firm outlined four potential 12-month return scenarios for the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index: • Fed holds rates steady: +6.4% • Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points: +7.2% • Fed raises rates by 100 basis points: +2.5% • Recession leads to 150 basis points of cuts: +11.6% Even a meaningful increase in interest rates could still leave Treasury investors with a positive return because today’s elevated yields provide so much income. BlackRock stated they believe markets are pricing a more aggressive path for Federal Reserve policy than economic conditions justify. Its preferred strategy is not to make a huge bet on falling interest rates, but to focus on income, carefully selected securities and allowing elevated yields to compound over time. After years of ultra-low rates, bonds are once again offering both meaningful income and real downside protection.
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This idiot @kevinxu told his 100K followers he was "going all in" on $IREN back on Jan. 28. The stock was trading at $63. Today, just six months later, it's at $38.53 after hours after getting crushed on earnings. That's nearly a 40% loss from his call. Be careful who you follow. Blindly copying "finfluencers" can be an expensive mistake!
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Compounding Lab retweeted
My economy crash indicators. 3 out of 4 are triggered. One left.
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Compounding Lab retweeted
$VIX hovering near the lows for 2026. But get ready in a couple weeks...
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A lot of people ask me about valuation. Coming from finance, valuation is the bread and butter. But today, using classic valuation frameworks to underwrite a historic re-rating of next-gen infrastructure is a blunt instrument.
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Compounding Lab retweeted
$CLSK: SITUATIONAL AWARENESS INCREASED POSITION IN CLEANSPARK BY NEARLY 650% Q4 2025: 1,640,400 shares Q1 2026: 12,276,139 shares Leopold added over 10.6 million shares to his CleanSpark position last quarter 👀
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$EOSE (Eos Energy) #earnings are out:
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