The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance. It is the illusion of knowledge. - Stephen Hawking
Henderson, NV
Joined July 2019
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G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
Tech Stocks in Bear Market Territory:
1. SanDisk, $SNDK: -66%
2. Arm Holdings, $ARM: -64%
3. Coinbase, $COIN: -63%
4. Nebius, $NBIS: -62%
5. Seagate, $STX: -60%
6. Marvell Technology, $MRVL: -59%
7. ServiceNow, $NOW: -57%
8. Oracle, $ORCL: -56%
9. AppLovin, $APP: -54%
10. Circle, $CRCL: -54%
11. Super Micro Computer, $SMCI: -51%
12. Micron, $MU: -48%
13. Dell, $DELL: -47%
14. SpaceX, $SPCX: -47%
15. Qualcomm, $QCOM: -43%
16. Broadcom, $AVGO: -41%
17. AMD, $AMD: -39%
18. Robinhood, $HOOD: -38%
19. Alphabet, $GOOGL: -32%
20. Tesla, $TSLA: -32%
21. Palantir, $PLTR: -28%
22. TSMC, $TSM: -28%
23. Meta, $META: -26%
24. CrowdStrike, $CRWD: -26%
25. Nvidia, $NVDA: -25%
The S&P 500 has now erased -$4 trillion in market cap since October 6th.
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
On today's stock market crash:
As an investor, on days like today, you have to ask yourself one question: What fundamentally changed over the last 24 hours?
The shift in the fundamental backdrop cannot be attributed solely to the Midterm Election results; markets had already largely priced in the outcome.
So, what changed between yesterday and today? What is the fundamental reason for today's decline?
One of the most likely catalysts is growing concern about a potential "ban" on AI, or at the very least, severe regulation of the industry.
Over the last 24 hours, Democratic lawmakers have publicly called for restrictions on advanced AI development, including an outright "ban on artificial superintelligence."
Frankly, an outright ban will not happen.
Such a ban, if even possible to enforce, would effectively mean the US surrendering its position in the global AI race to China.
Does this mean AI is "over" or today's stock market crash marks "the end?" Absolutely not.
Rather, we believe we are witnessing a sudden shift in sentiment colliding with excessive levels of leverage, potentially triggering forced liquidations by several major institutional investors.
Therefore, today's downturn is more technical than fundamental. This is not to discount the concerns around regulation, they are legitimate. But price action right now does not look orderly or rational.
We are in the midst of the biggest technological revolution in human history.
Zoom out and remain calm.
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
US industrial capacity has been eroding for decades, and with it the fortunes of our middle class and to an extent, our national security. Data center development and our leadership in AI can reverse that trend, finally. Current hysteria to block all projects everywhere is a gift to China.
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
What's happening in stocks right now is crystal clear.
Fundamentally, nothing has changed over the last 60 minutes.
This is the product of record levels of leverage colliding with a sudden shift in market sentiment.
Sentiment is the ultimate driver of price.
For months, we have been commenting on the historic levels of leverage in today's markets.
This is precisely what happens when sentiment reverses in an overleveraged market.
We will have more to say on this shortly.
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
The US semiconductor SELLOFF may be only getting started:
Semiconductors now account for near a record 16% of the S&P 500's market cap, down slightly from ~18%.
This decline follows a -30% drop in the Semiconductor Index from its June peak.
By comparison, at the peak of the 2000 Dot-Com bubble, semiconductors accounted for 7% of the S&P 500's market cap before more than halving to 3% by 2002.
Meanwhile, the entire tech sector accounts for ~37% of the market, also well above its 2000 Dot-Com Level.
For perspective, defensive sectors accounted for less than 20% of the market just weeks ago, before they began to take off.
If rotation into defensive sectors continues, semiconductors could face a rough path ahead.
Great Chart: @Todd_Sohn
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
Charlie Munger on how to live a successful life:
“I think personal discipline, personal morality, good colleagues, good ideas..all the simple stuff…All of those old virtues, they all work.”
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
Latest US macroeconomic data show:
Robust productivity: Q3 productivity grew 3.6% (vs. 2.9% consensus).
Resilient labor market: Initial weekly jobless claims dropped to 189,000.
Easing wage costs: Unit labor costs fell 0.7% despite strong employment conditions.
#economy #markets
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
Warren Buffett: “In order to succeed you must first survive.”
Most new investors prioritize beating the market. The first goal should be avoiding ruin.
Outperforming is ideal. Staying in the game is mandatory.
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
Your next phone plan could one day come from $SPCX. 🚀
$QCOM says its Dragonwing tech will power Starlink Mobile’s nationwide 5G network, which would put Starlink in the same ring as AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon.
Read more: yhoo.it/4sIOvz4
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
A wide range of indicators confirm that the economy has been the #1 issue for voters in the US midterm elections.
Within the economy, it’s primarily about affordability ... and within affordability, a major focus remains gas prices.
#economy #markets #elections #Midterms2026
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
US semiconductor stocks have rarely been this volatile:
Over the last 5 mins S&P 500 Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index has recorded 11 trading sessions in which at least 50% of its components fell -5% or more, the 4th-highest reading on record.
By comparison, during the 2008 Financial Crisis, the index recorded 16 such sessions.
The only other periods with more volatility were 2000 and 2002, following the Dot-Com Bubble burst.
Furthermore, the S&P 500 Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index fell more than -5% on 12 trading days over the last 5 months.
The index is now down -32% from its June peak, trading at its lowest level since April.
Semiconductor stocks are experiencing historic volatility.
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
BREAKING: Iran now rejects claims of a breakthrough in negotiations with Washington, telling Reuters that a deal to end the war remains far off. Tehran says the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until its conditions are met, with nuclear negotiations only to follow afterward.
A senior Iranian official confirmed that an eight-day draft deal mediated by Qatar has failed to bridge core divides due to Washington’s "excessive demands". With U.S. jets conducting strikes on Qeshm Island and multiple tankers ablaze in Hormuz after hitting mines, Tehran reiterated that it is prepared for combat and will retaliate without geographic constraints against any fresh American offensive.
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
Elon Musk says the AI boom will hit a WALL by the end of 2026.
He says the whole industry is about to learn a hard lesson in hardware.
Chip output is exploding, but electricity is nearly flat everywhere outside China.
So the two lines cross this year.
He says by the end of the year, we will be making more AI chips than we can actually turn on.
Millions of them pile up with nowhere to plug in.
In his words, the bottleneck for the next year is not chips, it is raw power.
Whoever can turn on the most chips fastest wins the race.
In the end, the AI race comes down to one thing:
Raw electricity.
— Elon Musk (.@elonmusk) on Dwarkesh Patel's (.@dwarkesh_sp) podcast
Elon Musk says billion dollar AI companies with money to spend can't build power plants fast enough to meet AI's electricity demand.
Every major power project requires approvals and equipment, including:
• Switchgear
• Gas turbines
• Power plant permits
• Electrical transformers
• Utility interconnection studies
• High-voltage transmission lines
• Specialized turbine blades and vanes
If even one component is delayed, the entire project stalls... leaving AI chips without electricity.
Musk says gas turbines are sold out through 2030, with specialized blades and vanes being the biggest bottleneck.
Building more power plants isn't the quick solution AI companies thought it'd be.
— Elon Musk (.@elonmusk) on Dwarkesh Patel's (.@dwarkesh_sp) podcast
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
Tokenization is the biggest bull market in crypto.
The total circulating supply of onchain tokenized equities just hit another record high, at $3.8 billion.
This metric has now reached a new record high for 10 consecutive weeks, up +590% year-to-date.
It has become increasingly clear that financial markets are moving toward tokenizing everything.
Investors are demanding 24/7 markets, and tokenized assets are increasingly fulfilling that demand.
Amid the shift, Jupiter, the largest onchain platform on Solana, reported that 70% of tokenized asset trading now occurs outside traditional market hours.
Amid this surge in demand, the NYSE is developing infrastructure for tokenized equities and perpetual futures.
The future of financial markets is onchain.
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
BREAKING: Trump is now preparing to use Hegseth as a scapegoat, privately asking his allies about the job performance of Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine as he searches for someone to blame for the political damage of the Iran war, per The Atlantic.
Trump is furious that his top military advisers promised him a quick victory in Iran, as short as days, that never came.
"Hegseth is unpopular in much of the White House," two advisers to Trump said, adding that he "has not been honest about the state of the war, which he consistently paints in rosy terms to keep Trump happy."
"Hegseth is good at telling the president what he wants to hear," the adviser adds.
Trump has concluded the war is at least partly to blame for his political position and has now focused on those who told him it would be quick and decisive.
Hegseth and Caine briefed Trump and Vance last week on strike options designed to create the conditions for Trump to "declare victory." Trump is now questioning whether the same advisers who promised a quick win can actually deliver one, or have instead dragged him into a larger mess.
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
This is f*cking insane. SpaceXAI founder Elon Musk:
"99% of people still use GrokBot like Google. They ask one question and close the tab
At SpaceXAI, over 80% of our engineers already run teams of 50+ GrokBot agents.
A Chief of Staff plans the day, PMs hand out the work, and the workers ship it overnight.
In 6-12 months GrokBot will be the #1 agentic tool in the world"
In this 1-hour session, Elon sits down with SpaceXAI engineers and shows how one GrokBot turns into a team that never clocks out
GrokBot → Chief of Staff → PMs → 50+ Workers → Autonomous Company
Chief of Staff agent plans the day and hands out every task
PM agent splits the work and checks everything the workers ship
Anyone can ask GrokBot a question, almost nobody gives it a team to run
Worth more than any $6,000 agentic engineering course
Bookmark and watch it today
Then read how to build your own team of GrokBot agents in the harness engineering guide below ↓
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
What's happening now in the stock market is more than just a "correction in tech stocks."
Sure, AI CapEx concerns are legitimate and investors will always care about profitability.
But, there's more beneath the surface here.
The reality is that the market is pricing-in a major shift in the political landscape of the US.
Over the last 12 months, market expectations for a Democrat "sweep" of the US Midterm elections have tripled.
Over the last 45 days alone, these expectations are up +30 percentage points.
As it stands, markets themselves now see a near-80% chance of a Democrat "sweep" of the US Midterm elections.
President Trump has already vowed to become "Mr. Veto" if this in fact does happen.
This is post is not political, it's objective. A change in the political landscape always comes with uncertainty; markets hate uncertainty.
Objectively, the market is in the process of pricing-in two years of political gridlock.
Could this change? Of course. But markets price-in the most probable outcome, and the odds now overwhelmingly favor the aforementioned scenario.
Tomorrow sets the stage for the next two years.
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
BREAKING: The largest US physical-gold backed ETF, $GLD, recorded -$1.8 billion in outflows in October, its biggest monthly withdrawal since June.
This also marks its 3rd-largest monthly outflow since February 2024.
Year-to-date, $GLD has seen -$3.8 billion in withdrawals, putting it on track for its first annual outflow since 2023.
By comparison, the fund attracted +$23.0 billion in inflows in 2025, its largest annual intake on record.
Meanwhile, investors withdrew -$1.5 billion from gold and other precious metal funds last week, marking their 2nd weekly outflow over the last 7 weeks.
Gold flows are highly volatile right now.
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
BOOM 🚨 In about two months, a handful of buildings in Memphis will hold around 1.2 million Nvidia Blackwell GPUs, according to Elon Musk 🤯
To understand how massive that really is, you have to see it in real-world terms.
These GPUs come in racks of 72, which works out to roughly 16,700 racks. Each rack weighs about 3,000 pounds, so the hardware alone tops 20,000 tons. That's about three Eiffel Towers' worth of iron, packed into a handful of buildings in Memphis.
Powering it takes the energy of a major city. Once you count cooling and networking, each GPU pulls about 2 kW, so the whole site needs around 2 gigawatts.
That's enough electricity for about 1.5 million American homes, which is several times the number of homes in all of Memphis.
Then there's the raw computing power, and this is where it gets wild. At the 8-bit precision used for AI training, Colossus 2 can run about 6 sextillion calculations per second.
If every person on Earth did one calculation per second, nonstop, it would take humanity more than 20,000 years to match what this machine does in a single second.
And here's the kicker: this isn't even the finish line. Elon's stated goal for xAI is 50 million H100s' worth of compute by 2030, more than fifteen times everything you just read about.
G. Paco Gonzalez retweeted
AI is burning Big Tech's free cash flow:
The combined CapEx of Amazon, $AMZN, Alphabet, $GOOGL, Meta, $META, and Microsoft, $MSFT, rose +$36.9 billion in Q3 2026, to a record $201.9 billion.
This figure has more than doubled over the last 12 months and is up +356% since Q1 2024.
Big Tech has now spent $1.6 trillion on CapEx over the last 3 years.
Meanwhile, the combined free cash flow of these companies fell -$33.1 billion last quarter, to -$26.4 billion, its lowest on record.
Free cash flow among these firms has dropped -$88.2 billion over the last year.
Only Microsoft reported positive free cash flow in Q3.
Looking ahead, these 4 companies plan to spend another $232 billion on CapEx in Q4, potentially lifting their combined CapEx to a record $740 billion in 2026.
Big Tech is undertaking one of the largest infrastructure buildouts in history.
